Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints36
- Paul GeorgeAssists6
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- OG AnunobyAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–119
- Q416.6Jalen Brunson bad pass
turnover (Quentin Grimes steals)130–119
- Q424.9Joel Embiid makes dunk (VJ Edgecombe assists)130–119
- Q433.2Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 2 of 2128–119
- Q433.2Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 1 of 2128–118
- Q433.2Paul George shooting foul128–117
- Q435.2Paul George lost ball turnover (Karl-Anthony Towns steals)128–117
- Q442.2Jalen Brunson makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot128–117
- Q450.0VJ Edgecombe makes free throw 2 of 2128–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:24VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 49 – 41 NY · PHI 54% → 62% +8PHI 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q25:50Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot running jump shot (Tyler Kolek assists)PHI 49 – 44 NY · NY 38% → 46% +8NY 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q225.6OG Anunoby makes 22-foot three pointer (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)PHI 66 – 58 NY · NY 27% → 35% +8NY 27% → 35%+8 pts
- Q310:59Paul George makes 23-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)PHI 71 – 60 NY · PHI 66% → 74% +8PHI 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q410:12Jared McCain makes 22-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)PHI 103 – 91 NY · PHI 81% → 89% +8PHI 81% → 89%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -3.5
- ML PHI +145 / NY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3
- NY 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NY: Elo 62.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NY -156
- PHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 115.0 – 118.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +86 | +17 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +90 Elo | NY 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 57.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 120.64th of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 114.511th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +6.15th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 119.33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 17th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.022nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 15–32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148025th of 30 |
| 19th of 301453 | Elo rating | 16045th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–12 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 11–7 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–11 NY in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.
- Dec 19PHI 116 @ NY 107Picked NY 68%Miss
- Apr 1PHI 91 @ NY 105Picked NY 86%Hit
- Feb 26PHI 105 @ NY 110Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 15NY 125 @ PHI 119Picked NY 65%Hit
- Nov 12NY 111 @ PHI 99Picked NY 59%Hit
- May 2NY 118 @ PHI 115PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss
- Apr 30PHI 112 @ NY 106PlayoffsPicked NY 59%Miss
- Apr 28NY 97 @ PHI 92PlayoffsPicked PHI 54%Miss