Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints23
- Jalen JohnsonAssists11
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints24
- Kevin McCullar Jr.Assists6
- Ariel HukportiRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–99
- Q420.8Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound111–99
- Q423.4Miles McBride misses 27-foot three point jumper111–99
- Q431.0Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2111–99
- Q431.0Hawks offensive team rebound110–99
- Q431.0Onyeka Okongwu misses free throw 1 of 2110–99
- Q431.0OG Anunoby personal foul110–99
- Q433.0Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound110–99
- Q433.0Jalen Brunson misses driving layup110–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:45Onyeka Okongwu makes 24-foot running jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 19 – 16 NY · ATL 38% → 45% +6ATL 38% → 45%+6 pts
- Q13:17Jalen Johnson makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotATL 27 – 24 NY · ATL 39% → 46% +7ATL 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q29:47Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)ATL 39 – 33 NY · NY 38% → 46% +7NY 38% → 46%+7 pts
- Q25:04Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kevin McCullar Jr. assists)ATL 47 – 43 NY · NY 41% → 49% +8NY 41% → 49%+8 pts
- Q21:53Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 58 – 45 NY · ATL 68% → 76% +7ATL 68% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -4.5
- ML ATL +154 / NY -185
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5
- NY 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- NY: Elo 69.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -165
- ATL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.5 – 122.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1623 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | −29 | ATL: Missing Trae Young −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NY: Missing Karl-Anthony Towns −52 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +143 Elo | NY 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 62.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 121.23rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.1 | Points allowed | 114.611th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +6.64th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 120.03rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 113.516th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.8 | Pace | 100.923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 15–22nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 148226th of 30 |
| 19th of 301453 | Elo rating | 16234th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+21 Elo- Trae Young right quad contusion−21 Elo
Knicks
−29 Elo- Karl-Anthony Towns illness−52 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–18 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 16–13 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–6 NY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Dec 27NY 128 @ ATL 125Picked NY 66%Hit
- Apr 5NY 121 @ ATL 105Picked NY 53%Hit
- Feb 12ATL 148 @ NY 149Picked NY 73%Hit
- Jan 20ATL 110 @ NY 119Picked NY 72%Hit
- Dec 11ATL 108 @ NY 100Picked NY 75%Miss
- Nov 6NY 116 @ ATL 121Picked NY 72%Miss
- Mar 5ATL 116 @ NY 100Picked NY 61%Miss
- Nov 15NY 116 @ ATL 114Picked ATL 62%Miss