Philadelphia 76ers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints34
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Tyrese MaxeyRebounds8
Mavericks- Max ChristiePoints18
- Cooper FlaggAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–108
- Q47.8shot clock turnover123–108
- Q430.4Quentin Grimes defensive rebound123–108
- Q433.6Brandon Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper123–108
- Q444.0VJ Edgecombe makes 29-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)123–108
- Q41:02VJ Edgecombe defensive rebound120–108
- Q41:04Cooper Flagg misses 22-foot three point jumper120–108
- Q41:13Tyrese Maxey makes 13-foot fade away jump shot120–108
- Q41:32Max Christie traveling turnover118–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q351.8Jaden Hardy makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)PHI 88 – 81 DAL · DAL 14% → 22% +8DAL 14% → 22%+8 pts
- Q49:40Joel Embiid makes 16-foot fade away jump shotPHI 98 – 92 DAL · PHI 70% → 77% +8PHI 70% → 77%+8 pts
- Q49:00Naji Marshall makes driving layupPHI 98 – 94 DAL · DAL 22% → 30% +8DAL 22% → 30%+8 pts
- Q48:38Joel Embiid makes 17-foot jumperPHI 100 – 94 DAL · PHI 71% → 79% +8PHI 71% → 79%+8 pts
- Q47:06Quentin Grimes makes 26-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)PHI 105 – 96 DAL · PHI 81% → 90% +9PHI 81% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML PHI -135 / DAL +114
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- DAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 117.0 – 114.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +78 | +33 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +46 Elo | PHI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 113.724th of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 117.720th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −4.023rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 108.328th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.9 | Pace | 103.57th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 9th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 9–918th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 30 |
| 20th of 301442 | Elo rating | 142922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–12 | 15–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–7 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.