New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints35
- Derik QueenAssists12
- Derik QueenRebounds16
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints15
- Justin ChampagnieAssists4
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–107
- Q421.6Bub Carrington makes 16-foot pullup jump shot128–107
- Q428.4Derik Queen bad pass
turnover (Malaki Branham steals)128–105
- Q444.3Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound128–105
- Q446.7Karlo Matkovic blocks AJ Johnson 's 5-foot running layup128–105
- Q451.2Jeremiah Fears lost ball turnover (AJ Johnson steals)128–105
- Q455.3Tristan Vukcevic makes free throw 1 of 1128–105
- Q455.3Karlo Matkovic shooting foul128–104
- Q455.3Jordan Hawkins defensive goaltending violation128–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:42Bilal Coulibaly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)NO 16 – 17 WSH · WSH 39% → 45% +7WSH 39% → 45%+7 pts
- Q25:41Trey Murphy III makes 29-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)NO 44 – 40 WSH · NO 58% → 66% +8NO 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q22:40Trey Murphy III makes 30-foot three pointerNO 51 – 44 WSH · NO 66% → 73% +7NO 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q21:04Micah Peavy makes 23-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)NO 56 – 47 WSH · NO 71% → 78% +7NO 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q251.6Kyshawn George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alex Sarr assists)NO 56 – 50 WSH · WSH 22% → 29% +7WSH 22% → 29%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NO -3.5
- ML NO -148 / WSH +124
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1
- NO 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- NO: Elo 46.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- NO -134
- WSH +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 123.0 – 119.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1323 | 1343 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −22 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +26 Elo | WSH 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.5 | Points scored | 113.524th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.7 | Points allowed | 124.229th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.2 | Margin | −10.729th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 109.227th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 119.629th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.7 | Pace | 103.39th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–14 | Road vs home | 6–1226th of 30 |
| 4th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 30th of 301323 | Elo rating | 134329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–19 | 15–21 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–0 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.