New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints22
- Zion WilliamsonAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds10
Hawks- Zaccharie RisacherPoints25
- Dyson DanielsAssists8
- Mouhamed GueyeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–117
- Q49.0shot clock turnover100–117
- Q433.1Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup100–117
- Q439.1shot clock turnover98–117
- Q439.1Hawks offensive team rebound98–117
- Q440.7Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 25-foot three point shot98–117
- Q441.6Nickeil Alexander-Walker offensive rebound98–117
- Q442.2Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 23-foot three point jumper98–117
- Q41:03Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Bryce McGowens98–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:25Jordan Poole makes 24-foot three pointer (Jeremiah Fears assists)NO 3 – 2 ATL · NO 19% → 24% +5NO 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q111:17Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Mouhamed Gueye assists)NO 3 – 5 ATL · ATL 76% → 81% +5ATL 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q17:58Zaccharie Risacher makes 25-foot three pointer (Dyson Daniels assists)NO 9 – 16 ATL · ATL 83% → 87% +4ATL 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q13:50Kristaps Porzingis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)NO 21 – 28 ATL · ATL 83% → 87% +4ATL 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q25:07Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)NO 38 – 53 ATL · ATL 90% → 95% +5ATL 90% → 95%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -10.5
- ML NO +340 / ATL -440
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -7.5
- ATL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 76.6%, market 78.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -359
- NO +359 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 118.0 – 128.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 246.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1329 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +1 | 0 | NO: Usual rotation · ATL: Missing Onyeka Okongwu −11, N'Faly Dante −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ATL +206 Elo | ATL 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 77.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 78.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 118.511th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 119.925th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.0 | Margin | −1.418th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.5 | Defense rating | 114.619th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.5 | Pace | 103.94th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–13 | Road vs home | 6–1125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 30th of 301329 | Elo rating | 144821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
0 Elo- Onyeka Okongwu illness−11 Elo
- N'Faly Dante torn right acl−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–18 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 18–18 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–17 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–4 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.