Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints31
- Dyson DanielsAssists12
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds7
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints29
- Sandro MamukelashviliAssists8
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–134
- Q417.4Mo Bamba defensive rebound117–134
- Q419.3Zaccharie Risacher misses two point shot117–134
- Q430.4Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound117–134
- Q430.4Mo Bamba misses two point shot117–134
- Q431.1Mo Bamba offensive rebound117–134
- Q434.2Mo Bamba misses driving layup117–134
- Q447.4Ja'Kobe Walter defensive rebound117–134
- Q449.9Caleb Houstan misses running pullup jump shot117–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:00RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)ATL 81 – 86 TOR · TOR 66% → 74% +8TOR 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q33:41Keaton Wallace makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 99 – 102 TOR · ATL 22% → 31% +9ATL 22% → 31%+9 pts
- Q32:02Vit Krejci makes 24-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 102 – 104 TOR · ATL 25% → 35% +10ATL 25% → 35%+10 pts
- Q31:46Ja'Kobe Walter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)ATL 102 – 107 TOR · TOR 65% → 75% +10TOR 65% → 75%+10 pts
- Q49:57RJ Barrett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)ATL 106 – 114 TOR · TOR 77% → 86% +9TOR 77% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -5.5
- ML ATL +170 / TOR -205
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -3
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -181
- ATL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 113.5 – 119.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −7 | +17 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +78 Elo | TOR 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 113.823rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 112.54th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 112.320th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 111.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.8 | Pace | 100.725th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 10–815th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148524th of 30 |
| 18th of 301471 | Elo rating | 144920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–18 | 16–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 13–5 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–16 | 13–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–6 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.
- Nov 7TOR 109 @ ATL 97Picked ATL 53%Miss
- Oct 22TOR 138 @ ATL 118Picked ATL 66%Miss
- Jan 25TOR 117 @ ATL 94Picked ATL 66%Miss
- Jan 23TOR 122 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 65%Miss
- Dec 29ATL 136 @ TOR 107Picked TOR 50%Miss
- Feb 23TOR 123 @ ATL 121Picked ATL 67%Miss
- Jan 28TOR 125 @ ATL 126Picked ATL 56%Hit
- Dec 15ATL 125 @ TOR 104Picked TOR 54%Miss