Atlanta Hawks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Onyeka OkongwuPoints17
- Jalen JohnsonAssists7
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds14
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints19
- Scottie BarnesAssists10
- Brandon IngramRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–118
- Q412.7shot clock turnover100–118
- Q436.6RJ Barrett defensive rebound100–118
- Q439.8Dyson Daniels misses 29-foot three point jumper100–118
- Q449.2Brandon Ingram makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)100–118
- Q41:06Scottie Barnes defensive rebound100–115
- Q41:09Jalen Johnson misses 29-foot three point shot100–115
- Q41:17Collin Murray-Boyles makes 1-foot layup (Scottie Barnes assists)100–115
- Q41:23Collin Murray-Boyles defensive rebound100–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:38Immanuel Quickley makes 24-foot running jump shot (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)ATL 4 – 18 TOR · TOR 73% → 81% +8TOR 73% → 81%+8 pts
- Q15:48Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 11 – 20 TOR · ATL 18% → 27% +8ATL 18% → 27%+8 pts
- Q27:41Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot running jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)ATL 36 – 39 TOR · ATL 31% → 38% +7ATL 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q410:51Luke Kennard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 80 – 86 TOR · ATL 15% → 24% +9ATL 15% → 24%+9 pts
- Q45:15Zaccharie Risacher makes 28-foot running jump shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 93 – 100 TOR · ATL 5% → 13% +7ATL 5% → 13%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML ATL +114 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1.5
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.5%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- ATL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 117.5 – 120.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +27 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +45 Elo | TOR 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 114.423rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 112.65th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.812th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 112.720th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.7 | Defense rating | 111.04th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.9 | Pace | 100.923rd of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 11–815th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148524th of 30 |
| 19th of 301461 | Elo rating | 146020th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–19 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–13 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–16 | 14–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–7 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.
- Jan 3ATL 117 @ TOR 134Picked TOR 64%Hit
- Nov 7TOR 109 @ ATL 97Picked ATL 53%Miss
- Oct 22TOR 138 @ ATL 118Picked ATL 66%Miss
- Jan 25TOR 117 @ ATL 94Picked ATL 66%Miss
- Jan 23TOR 122 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 65%Miss
- Dec 29ATL 136 @ TOR 107Picked TOR 50%Miss
- Feb 23TOR 123 @ ATL 121Picked ATL 67%Miss
- Jan 28TOR 125 @ ATL 126Picked ATL 56%Hit