Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints29
- Dyson DanielsAssists10
- Dyson DanielsRebounds11
Nuggets- Peyton WatsonPoints25
- Jalen PickettAssists6
- Peyton WatsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–87
- Q416.5Zeke Nnaji makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)110–87
- Q426.8Nuggets defensive team rebound110–84
- Q428.9Vit Krejci misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot110–84
- Q450.5Asa Newell defensive rebound110–84
- Q454.7Hunter Tyson misses driving layup110–84
- Q41:16Keaton Wallace makes 19-foot step back jumpshot110–84
- Q41:31Luke Kennard defensive rebound108–84
- Q41:34Hunter Tyson misses 13-foot two point shot108–84
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:18Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot running jump shot (Hunter Tyson assists)ATL 71 – 69 DEN · DEN 28% → 38% +11DEN 28% → 38%+11 pts
- Q346.7Hunter Tyson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)ATL 71 – 72 DEN · DEN 38% → 50% +12DEN 38% → 50%+12 pts
- Q30.0Onyeka Okongwu makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 74 – 75 DEN · ATL 37% → 49% +12ATL 37% → 49%+12 pts
- Q410:30Keaton Wallace makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)ATL 84 – 78 DEN · ATL 66% → 77% +11ATL 66% → 77%+11 pts
- Q49:35Luke Kennard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 87 – 78 DEN · ATL 78% → 87% +9ATL 78% → 87%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -3.5
- ML ATL -148 / DEN +124
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- ATL 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 41.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -134
- DEN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 113.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1635 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −162 | ATL: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −31, N'Faly Dante −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DEN: Missing Jamal Murray −66 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +60 Elo | DEN 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 124.11st of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 118.122nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +6.05th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 122.11st of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 116.225th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.1 | Pace | 100.525th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 10–510th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148821st of 30 |
| 21st of 301454 | Elo rating | 16353rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−5 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis left achilles tendinitis−31 Elo
- N'Faly Dante not with team−1 Elo
Nuggets
−162 Elo- Jamal Murray left ankle sprain−66 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–20 | 22–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–13 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders | 21–18 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–5 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.