Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Peyton WatsonPoints30
- Jamal MurrayAssists17
- Jamal MurrayRebounds8
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints33
- Jaylen BrownAssists4
- Neemias QuetaRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–110
- Q40.1Nuggets offensive team rebound114–110
- Q40.2Jamal Murray misses 22-foot fade away jump shot114–110
- Q42.9Jamal Murray offensive rebound114–110
- Q42.9Jamal Murray misses free throw 2 of 2114–110
- Q42.9Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2114–110
- Q42.9Hugo Gonzalez personal take foul113–110
- Q46.5Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Zeke Nnaji113–110
- Q46.5Nuggets Full timeout113–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q335.5Zeke Nnaji makes 23-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 79 – 79 BOS · DEN 25% → 36% +11DEN 25% → 36%+11 pts
- Q321.3Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 79 – 82 BOS · BOS 64% → 75% +11BOS 64% → 75%+11 pts
- Q410:04Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Gordon assists)DEN 85 – 86 BOS · DEN 22% → 33% +11DEN 22% → 33%+11 pts
- Q46:12Jamal Murray makes 20-foot step back jumpshotDEN 92 – 90 BOS · DEN 40% → 52% +11DEN 40% → 52%+11 pts
- Q45:32Christian Braun makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 95 – 90 BOS · DEN 53% → 70% +17DEN 53% → 70%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML DEN +295 / BOS -375
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -7.5
- BOS 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 76.4%, market 75.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -312
- DEN +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 110.0 – 120.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1661 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −114 | +16 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +204 Elo | BOS 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 75.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.4 | Points scored | 117.813th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 110.52nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.1 | Margin | +7.33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30122.1 | Offense rating | 120.02nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 112.515th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.7 | Pace | 98.228th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–7 | Road vs home | 11–58th of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 148126th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301624 | Elo rating | 16612nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−114 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–15 | 21–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 13–10 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 24–12 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.