Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints26
- Nikola VucevicAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds15
Celtics- Anfernee SimonsPoints27
- Derrick WhiteAssists7
- Neemias QuetaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–115
- Q416.6shot clock turnover101–115
- Q437.7Jordan Walsh defensive rebound101–115
- Q441.0Derrick White blocks Patrick Williams 's 6-foot driving layup101–115
- Q455.4Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)101–115
- Q41:10Dalen Terry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jevon Carter assists)101–112
- Q41:23Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Isaac Okoro98–112
- Q41:23Patrick Williams enters the game for Ayo Dosunmu98–112
- Q41:23Jevon Carter enters the game for Nikola Vucevic98–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:05Matas Buzelis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 3 – 4 BOS · CHI 16% → 20% +4CHI 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q17:22Matas Buzelis makes two point shotCHI 9 – 6 BOS · CHI 24% → 28% +4CHI 24% → 28%+4 pts
- Q17:04Derrick White makes 15-foot driving floating jump shotCHI 9 – 8 BOS · BOS 72% → 76% +4BOS 72% → 76%+4 pts
- Q16:32Sam Hauser makes 27-foot running jump shot (Derrick White assists)CHI 9 – 11 BOS · BOS 76% → 80% +5BOS 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q14:59Hugo Gonzalez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)CHI 11 – 17 BOS · BOS 82% → 86% +4BOS 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -10.5
- ML CHI +350 / BOS -455
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10.5
- BOS 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 84.0%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -369
- CHI +369 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.0 – 123.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1658 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −33 | +15 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −36 | CHI crossed 1 time zone and BOS crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +288 Elo | BOS 84.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 78.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 79.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 117.913th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.8 | Points allowed | 110.72nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.5 | Margin | +7.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.8 | Offense rating | 120.02nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 112.715th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.6 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 16th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 10–510th of 30 |
| 29th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 148326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301430 | Elo rating | 16582nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–18 | 20–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–14 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–6 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.