Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Miles BridgesRebounds14
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints28
- Nikola VucevicAssists8
- Kevin HuerterRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–99
- Q47.6Tre Jones makes driving layup112–99
- Q413.9LaMelo Ball makes running dunk112–97
- Q416.2Matas Buzelis lost ball turnover (Miles Bridges steals)110–97
- Q427.1LaMelo Ball makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)110–97
- Q445.8Miles Bridges defensive rebound107–97
- Q448.7Matas Buzelis misses 22-foot running jump shot107–97
- Q452.5Kevin Huerter defensive rebound107–97
- Q455.1Kevin Huerter blocks Kon Knueppel 's 5-foot driving floating jump shot107–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:03Miles Bridges makes 26-foot running jump shot (Sion James assists)CHA 70 – 65 CHI · CHA 54% → 64% +10CHA 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q31:24Brandon Miller makes 29-foot three point jumper (Liam McNeeley assists)CHA 79 – 71 CHI · CHA 66% → 76% +10CHA 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q49:48Nikola Vucevic makes 24-foot three point jumperCHA 86 – 80 CHI · CHI 16% → 26% +10CHI 16% → 26%+10 pts
- Q49:25Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)CHA 89 – 80 CHI · CHA 74% → 84% +10CHA 74% → 84%+10 pts
- Q48:04Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHA 89 – 83 CHI · CHI 14% → 24% +10CHI 14% → 24%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML CHA +114 / CHI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CHI: Elo 56.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CHI -123
- CHA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 119.5 – 122.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHI and CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +31 | −24 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +43 Elo | CHI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 118.812th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 122.126th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.1 | Margin | −3.222nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 113.118th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 116.224th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.3 | Pace | 104.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 24th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 10–816th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 147528th of 30 |
| 28th of 301382 | Elo rating | 144421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–15 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–13 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 14–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–8 CHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 12CHI 129 @ CHA 126Picked CHI 56%Hit
- Nov 28CHI 116 @ CHA 123Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Apr 6CHI 131 @ CHA 117Picked CHI 75%Hit
- Jan 17CHA 125 @ CHI 123Picked CHI 63%Miss
- Dec 30CHI 115 @ CHA 108Picked CHI 61%Hit
- Dec 13CHA 95 @ CHI 109Picked CHI 66%Hit
- Jan 31CHI 117 @ CHA 110Picked CHI 65%Hit
- Jan 8CHI 119 @ CHA 112Picked CHI 61%Hit