Charlotte Hornets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Kon KnueppelPoints26
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- PJ HallRebounds8
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–122
- Q40.8Hornets offensive team rebound121–122
- Q40.8Brandon Miller misses two point shot121–122
- Q44.7LaMelo Ball enters the game for Josh Green121–122
- Q44.7Hornets Full timeout121–122
- Q44.7Giannis Antetokounmpo makes alley oop dunk (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)121–122
- Q48.8AJ Green enters the game for Myles Turner121–120
- Q48.8Bucks Full timeout121–120
- Q48.8Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 1121–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q445.7Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)CHA 116 – 117 MIL · MIL 22% → 68% +46MIL 22% → 68%+46 pts
- Q429.8Miles Bridges makes 1-foot two point shot (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 118 – 117 MIL · CHA 29% → 68% +39CHA 29% → 68%+39 pts
- Q410.5Kyle Kuzma makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)CHA 118 – 120 MIL · MIL 20% → 96% +76MIL 20% → 96%+76 pts
- Q48.8Miles Bridges makes alley oop layup (Sion James assists)CHA 120 – 120 MIL · CHA 3% → 49% +46CHA 3% → 49%+46 pts
- Q44.7Giannis Antetokounmpo makes alley oop dunk (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)CHA 121 – 122 MIL · MIL 10% → 90% +80MIL 10% → 90%+80 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -5.5
- ML CHA +190 / MIL -230
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -5.5
- MIL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 71.2%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -202
- CHA +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 114.0 – 119.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +47 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +157 Elo | MIL 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 70.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 113.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.9 | Points allowed | 115.914th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.2 | Margin | −2.920th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 114.819th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 8–920th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 147430th of 30 |
| 28th of 301384 | Elo rating | 147018th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–15 | 16–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 13–20 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–8 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 29MIL 123 @ CHA 113Picked MIL 57%Hit
- Nov 14CHA 134 @ MIL 147Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Nov 12MIL 100 @ CHA 111Picked MIL 57%Miss
- Feb 5MIL 112 @ CHA 102Picked MIL 81%Hit
- Nov 23CHA 119 @ MIL 125Picked MIL 73%Hit
- Nov 16MIL 114 @ CHA 115Picked MIL 61%Miss
- Feb 29MIL 111 @ CHA 99Picked MIL 64%Hit
- Feb 27CHA 85 @ MIL 123Picked MIL 73%Hit