Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints33
- Jamal MurrayAssists5
- Aaron GordonRebounds6
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints24
- Ryan NembhardAssists4
- Daniel GaffordRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–109
- Q416.4Peyton Watson defensive rebound118–109
- Q419.6Jaden Hardy misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot118–109
- Q425.6Peyton Watson makes free throw 2 of 2118–109
- Q425.6Peyton Watson makes free throw 1 of 2117–109
- Q425.6Brandon Williams personal take foul116–109
- Q428.6Brandon Williams makes driving layup116–109
- Q433.3Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2116–107
- Q433.3Nuggets offensive team rebound115–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:36Jamal Murray makes 28-foot three point jumper (Zeke Nnaji assists)DEN 18 – 14 DAL · DEN 51% → 58% +7DEN 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q13:18Spencer Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 23 – 18 DAL · DEN 54% → 60% +7DEN 54% → 60%+7 pts
- Q410:56Ryan Nembhard makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)DEN 88 – 83 DAL · DAL 19% → 30% +10DAL 19% → 30%+10 pts
- Q410:34Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three pointer (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 91 – 83 DAL · DEN 71% → 81% +10DEN 71% → 81%+10 pts
- Q49:37Peyton Watson makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 96 – 85 DAL · DEN 82% → 90% +8DEN 82% → 90%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -1.5
- ML DEN -105 / DAL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DAL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 44.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -104
- DEN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 111.5 – 113.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1626 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −102 | −19 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +42 Elo | DEN 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.7 | Points scored | 113.024th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 116.819th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.3 | Margin | −3.924th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.2 | Offense rating | 107.928th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.3 | Pace | 103.48th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3016–7 | Road vs home | 11–1018th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 149120th of 30 |
| 4th of 301626 | Elo rating | 142525th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−102 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–16 | 17–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 25–15 | 16–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 5–4 DAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Dec 23DEN 130 @ DAL 131Picked DEN 68%Miss
- Dec 1DAL 131 @ DEN 121Picked DEN 81%Miss
- Jan 14DEN 118 @ DAL 99Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Jan 12DEN 112 @ DAL 101Picked DEN 67%Hit
- Nov 22DAL 123 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 64%Miss
- Nov 10DAL 120 @ DEN 122Picked DEN 54%Hit
- Mar 17DEN 105 @ DAL 107Picked DAL 54%Hit
- Dec 18DAL 104 @ DEN 130Picked DEN 61%Hit