Dallas Mavericks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints20
- Cooper FlaggAssists6
- Anthony DavisRebounds16
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints21
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–98
- Q41.0Kings offensive team rebound100–98
- Q41.3DeMar DeRozan misses three point shot100–98
- Q43.6Max Christie personal take foul100–98
- Q46.4Zach LaVine defensive rebound100–98
- Q48.1Naji Marshall misses free throw 2 of 2100–98
- Q48.1Keon Ellis enters the game for Russell Westbrook100–98
- Q48.1Mavericks offensive team rebound100–98
- Q48.1Naji Marshall misses free throw 1 of 2100–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:05Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)DAL 93 – 93 SAC · DAL 25% → 53% +28DAL 25% → 53%+28 pts
- Q41:13DeMar DeRozan makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)DAL 95 – 96 SAC · SAC 24% → 61% +37SAC 24% → 61%+37 pts
- Q454.7Cooper Flagg makes 10-foot two point shotDAL 97 – 96 SAC · DAL 37% → 66% +29DAL 37% → 66%+29 pts
- Q440.4DeMar DeRozan makes 16-foot step back jumpshotDAL 97 – 98 SAC · SAC 32% → 66% +34SAC 32% → 66%+34 pts
- Q433.9Brandon Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 100 – 98 SAC · DAL 33% → 84% +51DAL 33% → 84%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -4.5
- ML DAL -192 / SAC +160
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4
- DAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 64.7%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -171
- SAC +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 119.0 – 114.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | −63 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +106 Elo | DAL 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 110.329th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 122.327th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.0 | Margin | −12.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.1 | Offense rating | 106.730th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 118.227th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.5 | Pace | 102.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–12 | Road vs home | 5–1227th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15471st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301430 | Elo rating | 139426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–20 | 12–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 11–22 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 2–6 SAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Dec 27DAL 107 @ SAC 113Picked DAL 56%Miss
- Mar 3SAC 122 @ DAL 98Picked SAC 54%Hit
- Feb 10SAC 129 @ DAL 128Picked SAC 51%Hit
- Dec 30DAL 100 @ SAC 110Picked SAC 73%Hit
- Mar 29DAL 107 @ SAC 103Picked DAL 56%Hit
- Mar 26DAL 132 @ SAC 96Picked DAL 52%Hit
- Jan 27SAC 120 @ DAL 115Picked SAC 53%Hit
- Nov 19SAC 129 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 52%Miss