Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints34
- Kevin DurantAssists7
- Amen ThompsonRebounds12
Mavericks- Anthony DavisPoints26
- Cooper FlaggAssists6
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–110
- Q43.8Tari Eason makes 30-foot three pointer (Aaron Holiday assists)104–110
- Q45.8shot clock turnover101–110
- Q428.8Naji Marshall defensive rebound101–110
- Q431.4Jabari Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point jumper101–110
- Q432.7Rockets Full timeout101–110
- Q432.7Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2101–110
- Q432.7Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2101–109
- Q432.7Jabari Smith Jr. personal foul101–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:16Tari Eason makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 39 – 42 DAL · HOU 53% → 61% +8HOU 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q249.7Brandon Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)HOU 50 – 57 DAL · DAL 44% → 52% +9DAL 44% → 52%+9 pts
- Q36:26Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 65 – 65 DAL · HOU 55% → 65% +10HOU 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q34:43Max Christie makes 22-foot running jump shot (Brandon Williams assists)HOU 65 – 74 DAL · DAL 56% → 67% +10DAL 56% → 67%+10 pts
- Q46:56Dorian Finney-Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 87 – 96 DAL · HOU 8% → 16% +8HOU 8% → 16%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML HOU -325 / DAL +260
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5.5
- HOU 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 70.6%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -275
- DAL +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 118.0 – 110.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +31 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +152 Elo | HOU 70.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.5 | Points scored | 113.624th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 117.921st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+9.1 | Margin | −4.324th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30120.3 | Offense rating | 108.128th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 112.213th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.1 | Pace | 103.57th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 9–1020th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 4th of 301611 | Elo rating | 141823rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–13 | 15–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–5 DAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.
- Dec 6HOU 109 @ DAL 122Picked HOU 69%Miss
- Nov 3DAL 102 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Mar 14DAL 96 @ HOU 133Picked HOU 82%Hit
- Feb 8HOU 105 @ DAL 116Picked DAL 58%Hit
- Jan 1DAL 99 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 64%Hit
- Oct 31HOU 108 @ DAL 102Picked DAL 69%Miss
- Apr 7HOU 136 @ DAL 147Picked DAL 69%Hit
- Mar 31DAL 125 @ HOU 107Picked DAL 53%Hit