Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints23
- Russell WestbrookAssists6
- Keegan MurrayRebounds9
Suns- Devin BookerPoints33
- Jordan GoodwinAssists6
- Mark WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–129
- Q48.4Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound102–129
- Q48.4Devin Carter misses two point shot102–129
- Q49.2Devin Carter offensive rebound102–129
- Q413.0Precious Achiuwa misses 26-foot three point jumper102–129
- Q415.3Kings offensive team rebound102–129
- Q417.2Precious Achiuwa misses driving layup102–129
- Q424.0Precious Achiuwa offensive rebound102–129
- Q427.4Khaman Maluach blocks Precious Achiuwa 's 2-foot driving layup102–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:56DeMar DeRozan makes two point shotSAC 16 – 15 PHX · SAC 13% → 18% +5SAC 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q14:04Keegan Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)SAC 23 – 17 PHX · SAC 22% → 28% +5SAC 22% → 28%+5 pts
- Q211:08Collin Gillespie makes 27-foot three pointerSAC 35 – 35 PHX · PHX 76% → 81% +5PHX 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q29:54Keon Ellis makes 29-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)SAC 38 – 35 PHX · SAC 20% → 25% +6SAC 20% → 25%+6 pts
- Q21:11Dennis Schroder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 56 – 55 PHX · SAC 19% → 25% +6SAC 19% → 25%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -13.5
- ML SAC +525 / PHX -750
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -11.5
- PHX 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 86.8%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- PHX -551
- SAC +551 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 105.0 – 118.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −81 | 0 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +326 Elo | PHX 86.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 82.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 82.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 84.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 113.88th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.4 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.2 | Offense rating | 113.315th of 30 |
| 27th of 30118.2 | Defense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.221st of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–15 | Road vs home | 10–59th of 30 |
| 1st of 301548 | Opponent Elo | 15107th of 30 |
| 25th of 301407 | Elo rating | 15649th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–22 | 22–11 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 12–2 |
| Underdog | 11–20 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–6 PHX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 11.
- Nov 26PHX 112 @ SAC 100Picked PHX 62%Hit
- Oct 22SAC 116 @ PHX 120Picked PHX 61%Hit
- Apr 13PHX 98 @ SAC 109Picked SAC 86%Hit
- Mar 14SAC 106 @ PHX 122Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Nov 13PHX 104 @ SAC 127Picked SAC 74%Hit
- Nov 10SAC 127 @ PHX 118Picked SAC 51%Hit
- Apr 12PHX 108 @ SAC 107Picked PHX 55%Hit
- Feb 13SAC 125 @ PHX 130Picked PHX 57%Hit