Milwaukee Bucks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Kings- Russell WestbrookPoints21
- Dennis SchroderAssists5
- Maxime RaynaudRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–98
- Q421.3Zach LaVine makes free throw 2 of 2115–98
- Q421.3Zach LaVine makes free throw 1 of 2115–97
- Q421.3Myles Turner shooting foul115–96
- Q427.6Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2115–96
- Q427.6Ryan Rollins makes free throw 1 of 2114–96
- Q427.6Russell Westbrook shooting foul113–96
- Q428.3Ryan Rollins offensive rebound113–96
- Q431.7Kyle Kuzma misses 28-foot three point jumper113–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:55Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIL 9 – 11 SAC · MIL 56% → 63% +6MIL 56% → 63%+6 pts
- Q11:11Zach LaVine makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nique Clifford assists)MIL 26 – 26 SAC · SAC 28% → 34% +6SAC 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q49:43Zach LaVine makes 2-foot running dunk (Russell Westbrook assists)MIL 85 – 81 SAC · SAC 18% → 25% +7SAC 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q49:31Kevin Porter Jr. makes driving layupMIL 87 – 81 SAC · MIL 75% → 82% +7MIL 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q48:46Drew Eubanks makes 10-foot two point shot (Zach LaVine assists)MIL 88 – 85 SAC · SAC 21% → 29% +8SAC 21% → 29%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML MIL -238 / SAC +195
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -5
- MIL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 69.8%, market 67.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -208
- SAC +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 117.0 – 110.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | −74 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +145 Elo | MIL 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 68.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 110.628th of 30 |
| 14th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 122.527th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.7 | Margin | −11.830th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 106.930th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 118.327th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.513th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–11 | Road vs home | 5–1126th of 30 |
| 29th of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 15501st of 30 |
| 17th of 301472 | Elo rating | 140226th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–19 | 12–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 11–21 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–2 SAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.