Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints26
- Cooper FlaggAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds11
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints33
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists7
- Kevin LoveRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–116
- Q40.0(00:00) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)114–116
- Q40.8Naji Marshall makes 30-foot running jump shot (Max Christie assists)114–116
- Q47.0Daniel Gafford defensive rebound111–116
- Q47.1Lauri Markkanen misses free throw 2 of 2111–116
- Q47.1Jazz offensive team rebound111–116
- Q47.1Lauri Markkanen misses free throw 1 of 2111–116
- Q47.1Daniel Gafford personal foul111–116
- Q410.1Cooper Flagg personal take foul111–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:04Cooper Flagg makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 95 – 91 UTAH · DAL 61% → 73% +12DAL 61% → 73%+12 pts
- Q43:31Lauri Markkanen makes 4-foot two point shotDAL 107 – 105 UTAH · UTAH 19% → 32% +12UTAH 19% → 32%+12 pts
- Q42:52Lauri Markkanen makes two point shot (Brice Sensabaugh assists)DAL 107 – 107 UTAH · UTAH 31% → 47% +16UTAH 31% → 47%+16 pts
- Q42:09Lauri Markkanen makes 3-foot layup (Kyle Anderson assists)DAL 107 – 109 UTAH · UTAH 47% → 66% +19UTAH 47% → 66%+19 pts
- Q41:41Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)DAL 107 – 112 UTAH · UTAH 69% → 91% +22UTAH 69% → 91%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -5.5
- ML DAL -192 / UTAH +160
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 59.8%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- DAL -171
- UTAH +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 124.5 – 119.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1433 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +37 | +1 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +69 Elo | DAL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 119.86th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 127.130th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.8 | Margin | −7.326th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 120.130th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.5 | Pace | 104.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 8–1123rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15382nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301433 | Elo rating | 139326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–21 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–10 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–3 UTAH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Dec 15DAL 133 @ UTAH 140Picked DAL 51%Miss
- Nov 30DAL 106 @ UTAH 94Picked DAL 67%Hit
- Nov 14DAL 113 @ UTAH 115Picked DAL 72%Miss
- Oct 28UTAH 102 @ DAL 110Picked DAL 83%Hit
- Mar 25DAL 115 @ UTAH 105Picked DAL 68%Hit
- Mar 21UTAH 97 @ DAL 113Picked DAL 78%Hit
- Jan 1DAL 90 @ UTAH 127Picked DAL 50%Miss
- Dec 6UTAH 97 @ DAL 147Picked DAL 74%Hit