Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints22
- Isaiah CollierAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints33
- Deni AvdijaAssists9
- Donovan ClinganRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–137
- Q414.1shot clock turnover117–137
- Q438.1Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2117–137
- Q438.1Isaiah Collier makes free throw 1 of 2116–137
- Q438.1Rayan Rupert personal foul115–137
- Q450.8Yang Hansen makes free throw 2 of 2115–137
- Q450.8Yang Hansen makes free throw 1 of 2115–136
- Q450.8Taylor Hendricks shooting foul115–135
- Q41:11Kyle Filipowski makes layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)115–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:27Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)UTAH 4 – 3 POR · POR 59% → 65% +6POR 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q19:50Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)UTAH 4 – 6 POR · POR 65% → 70% +6POR 65% → 70%+6 pts
- Q19:07Jusuf Nurkic makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 7 – 6 POR · UTAH 30% → 36% +6UTAH 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q18:25Toumani Camara makes 26-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)UTAH 9 – 11 POR · POR 64% → 70% +6POR 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q14:38Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)UTAH 15 – 21 POR · POR 72% → 77% +5POR 72% → 77%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- POR -5.5
- ML UTAH +190 / POR -230
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -3
- POR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- POR: Elo 61.3%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- POR -202
- UTAH +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.5 – 124.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +12 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Jrue Holiday −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +80 Elo | POR 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.7 | Points scored | 116.317th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.7 | Points allowed | 119.623rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.1 | Margin | −3.322nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 111.323rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.0 | Defense rating | 114.517th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.0 | Pace | 103.95th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–11 | Road vs home | 7–921st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301535 | Opponent Elo | 15243rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301406 | Elo rating | 145120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+12 Elo- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–15 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–13 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 5–4 POR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Oct 29POR 136 @ UTAH 134Picked POR 58%Hit
- Apr 9POR 126 @ UTAH 133Picked POR 69%Miss
- Feb 24POR 114 @ UTAH 112Picked POR 72%Hit
- Dec 26UTAH 120 @ POR 122Picked POR 59%Hit
- Dec 6UTAH 141 @ POR 99Picked POR 61%Miss
- Dec 14UTAH 122 @ POR 114Picked POR 58%Miss
- Dec 2POR 113 @ UTAH 118Picked UTAH 53%Hit
- Nov 22UTAH 105 @ POR 121Picked UTAH 56%Miss