Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints29
- Deni AvdijaAssists10
- Donovan ClinganRebounds12
Spurs- Luke KornetPoints23
- Stephon CastleAssists9
- Julian ChampagnieRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–110
- Q43.0Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound115–110
- Q45.2Julian Champagnie misses 28-foot three point jumper115–110
- Q413.0Caleb Love makes free throw 2 of 2115–110
- Q413.0Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Donovan Clingan114–110
- Q413.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound114–110
- Q413.0Caleb Love misses free throw 1 of 2114–110
- Q413.0Keldon Johnson enters the game for Luke Kornet114–110
- Q413.0Luke Kornet personal foul114–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:00De'Aaron Fox makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 104 – 101 SA · SA 18% → 36% +18SA 18% → 36%+18 pts
- Q42:44Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)POR 108 – 103 SA · POR 61% → 83% +21POR 61% → 83%+21 pts
- Q42:16Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 111 – 105 SA · POR 72% → 90% +18POR 72% → 90%+18 pts
- Q41:36Stephon Castle makes 1-foot running dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)POR 111 – 110 SA · SA 23% → 43% +20SA 23% → 43%+20 pts
- Q449.6Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 114 – 110 SA · POR 62% → 93% +31POR 62% → 93%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -8.5
- ML POR +260 / SA -325
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -6
- SA 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- SA: Elo 73.0%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- SA -275
- POR +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.0 – 121.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1439 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SA and POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +1 | +17 | POR: Missing Robert Williams III −10 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +172 Elo | SA 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 69.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 119.87th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 114.410th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.6 | Margin | +5.47th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 117.06th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 111.79th of 30 |
| 4th of 30104.0 | Pace | 102.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 18th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 12–45th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301528 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301439 | Elo rating | 15599th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+1 Elo- Robert Williams III left knee injury management−10 Elo
Spurs
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–17 | 20–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 19–16 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–6 SA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Nov 26SA 115 @ POR 102Picked SA 52%Hit
- Apr 6SA 109 @ POR 120Picked POR 58%Hit
- Dec 21POR 94 @ SA 114Picked SA 70%Hit
- Dec 13SA 118 @ POR 116Picked SA 58%Hit
- Nov 7POR 105 @ SA 118Picked SA 61%Hit
- Jan 26POR 100 @ SA 116Picked SA 56%Hit
- Dec 29SA 128 @ POR 134Picked POR 63%Hit
- Dec 28SA 118 @ POR 105Picked POR 64%Miss