Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints29
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists11
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds15
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints46
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game125–129
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime125–129
- OT0.1Jazz offensive team rebound125–129
- OT0.2Keyonte George misses heave jump shot125–129
- OT1.4Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2125–129
- OT1.4Cason Wallace enters the game for Chet Holmgren125–128
- OT1.4Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2125–128
- OT1.4Keyonte George personal foul125–127
- OT2.4Chet Holmgren enters the game for Cason Wallace125–127
- OT2.4Thunder Full timeout125–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:11Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 112 – 108 OKC · UTAH 56% → 87% +31UTAH 56% → 87%+31 pts
- Q428.6Jalen Williams makes 14-foot step back jumpshotUTAH 112 – 112 OKC · OKC 18% → 55% +37OKC 18% → 55%+37 pts
- Q43.2Lauri Markkanen makes tip shotUTAH 114 – 112 OKC · UTAH 48% → >99% +51UTAH 48% → >99%+51 pts
- Q40.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)UTAH 114 – 114 OKC · OKC 0% → 65% +65OKC 0% → 65%+65 pts
- OT29.7Chet Holmgren makes tip in dunkUTAH 122 – 124 OKC · OKC 55% → 87% +33OKC 55% → 87%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -19.5
- ML UTAH +700 / OKC -1100
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 93%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -12.5
- OKC 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- OKC: Elo 88.1%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- OKC -733
- UTAH +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.5 – 131.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1671 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +13 | UTAH: Usual rotation · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +348 Elo | OKC 88.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 93.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 92.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 121.22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.0 | Points allowed | 107.61st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.4 | Margin | +13.61st of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 118.05th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.5 | Defense rating | 104.71st of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.9 | Pace | 101.419th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–12 | Road vs home | 17–21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 147929th of 30 |
| 26th of 301394 | Elo rating | 16711st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–16 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 19–18 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | — |
| Overs–unders | 22–13 | 18–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–9 OKC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.
- Dec 7OKC 131 @ UTAH 101Picked OKC 82%Hit
- Nov 21OKC 144 @ UTAH 112Picked OKC 91%Hit
- Apr 11OKC 145 @ UTAH 111Picked OKC 76%Hit
- Feb 21OKC 130 @ UTAH 107Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Jan 22UTAH 114 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Dec 3UTAH 106 @ OKC 133Picked OKC 87%Hit
- Mar 20UTAH 107 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 78%Hit
- Feb 6OKC 117 @ UTAH 124Picked UTAH 50%Hit