Charlotte Hornets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints28
- Kon KnueppelAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds12
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints21
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–97
- Q416.7Liam McNeeley makes 26-foot three point jumper (PJ Hall assists)124–97
- Q437.7Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound121–97
- Q441.0Chris Youngblood misses 26-foot three point jumper121–97
- Q442.7Chris Youngblood offensive rebound121–97
- Q445.8Kenrich Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper121–97
- Q457.1Isaiah Joe defensive rebound121–97
- Q41:00Tre Mann misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot121–97
- Q41:18PJ Hall defensive rebound121–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:44Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CHA 56 – 44 OKC · OKC 43% → 51% +8OKC 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q22:31LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 59 – 44 OKC · CHA 49% → 58% +8CHA 49% → 58%+8 pts
- Q229.5Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)CHA 64 – 48 OKC · OKC 29% → 37% +8OKC 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q27.2LaMelo Ball makes 22-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)CHA 67 – 48 OKC · CHA 64% → 72% +8CHA 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q310:30Kon Knueppel makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 72 – 54 OKC · CHA 64% → 72% +8CHA 64% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML CHA +675 / OKC -1050
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11.5
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 86.3%, market 87.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -708
- CHA +708 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 110.0 – 125.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1718 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +23 | +38 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +320 Elo | OKC 86.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 87.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 87.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 87.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.8 | Points scored | 121.92nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 107.21st of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.6 | Margin | +14.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 118.54th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 104.21st of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.519th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–13 | Road vs home | 17–11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 147828th of 30 |
| 26th of 301396 | Elo rating | 17181st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–15 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 19–17 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | — |
| Overs–unders | 14–21 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–5 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.