Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints25
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Suns- Jordan GoodwinPoints26
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Ryan DunnRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–108
- Q40.0Thunder offensive team rebound105–108
- Q40.0Ajay Mitchell misses 24-foot three point jumper105–108
- Q40.7Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Cason Wallace105–108
- Q40.7Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters the game for Luguentz Dort105–108
- Q40.7Mark Williams enters the game for Collin Gillespie105–108
- Q40.7Thunder Full timeout105–108
- Q41.6Devin Booker makes 35-foot three point step back jumpshot105–108
- Q48.2Cason Wallace enters the game for Ajay Mitchell105–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:37Dillon Brooks makes 19-foot step back jumpshotOKC 100 – 100 PHX · PHX 27% → 43% +16PHX 27% → 43%+16 pts
- Q41:46Jordan Goodwin makes 17-foot jumper (Devin Booker assists)OKC 100 – 102 PHX · PHX 44% → 66% +21PHX 44% → 66%+21 pts
- Q436.4Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 101 – 105 PHX · PHX 65% → 96% +31PHX 65% → 96%+31 pts
- Q48.7Jalen Williams makes 9-foot step back jumpshotOKC 105 – 105 PHX · OKC 3% → 52% +48OKC 3% → 52%+48 pts
- Q41.6Devin Booker makes 35-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 105 – 108 PHX · PHX 49% → >99% +51PHX 49% → >99%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -10.5
- ML OKC -395 / PHX +310
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 68.2%, market 76.6%
- Fair odds
- OKC -327
- PHX +327 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 120.0 – 109.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1726 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | +12 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +132 Elo | OKC 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 75.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 74.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 76.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.4 | Points scored | 115.520th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.1 | Points allowed | 113.46th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+15.3 | Margin | +2.111th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.7 | Offense rating | 113.614th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.9 | Defense rating | 111.68th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.320th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–3 | Road vs home | 11–57th of 30 |
| 28th of 301477 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 1st of 301726 | Elo rating | 15688th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–16 | 23–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–16 | 13–2 |
| Underdog | — | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 8–0 PHX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Dec 10PHX 89 @ OKC 138Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Nov 28PHX 119 @ OKC 123Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 9OKC 125 @ PHX 112Picked OKC 70%Hit
- Feb 5PHX 109 @ OKC 140Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 15PHX 83 @ OKC 99Picked OKC 73%Hit
- Mar 29PHX 103 @ OKC 128Picked PHX 54%Miss
- Mar 3OKC 118 @ PHX 110Picked OKC 64%Hit
- Nov 12OKC 111 @ PHX 99Picked PHX 53%Miss