Dallas Mavericks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Ryan NembhardPoints16
- Ryan NembhardAssists6
- Moussa CisseRebounds10
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints22
- Ayo DosunmuAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–125
- Q421.7Moussa Cisse makes running dunk (D'Angelo Russell assists)107–125
- Q422.5D'Angelo Russell defensive rebound105–125
- Q424.5Dalen Terry misses driving layup105–125
- Q448.5Caleb Martin makes free throw 2 of 2105–125
- Q448.5Mavericks offensive team rebound104–125
- Q448.5Caleb Martin misses free throw 1 of 2104–125
- Q448.5Julian Phillips shooting foul104–125
- Q41:03Jevon Carter makes 25-foot three pointer (Lachlan Olbrich assists)104–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:50Naji Marshall makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ryan Nembhard assists)DAL 11 – 14 CHI · DAL 28% → 33% +6DAL 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q15:36Ryan Nembhard makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 16 – 20 CHI · DAL 26% → 31% +6DAL 26% → 31%+6 pts
- Q210:12Nikola Vucevic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)DAL 32 – 41 CHI · CHI 73% → 79% +6CHI 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q27:55Isaac Okoro makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)DAL 39 – 49 CHI · CHI 75% → 81% +6CHI 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q37:11Coby White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)DAL 68 – 75 CHI · CHI 69% → 77% +8CHI 69% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML DAL +145 / CHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2.5
- CHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- CHI: Elo 59.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CHI -156
- DAL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 114.5 – 119.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | −18 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +68 Elo | CHI 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 117.114th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 121.226th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.8 | Margin | −4.124th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 116.326th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.5 | Pace | 104.42nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 10–916th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 148724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301427 | Elo rating | 142224th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–22 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–11 | 3–14 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–22 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–0 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.