Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Ayo DosunmuPoints24
- Tre JonesAssists12
- Nikola VucevicRebounds16
Pistons- Isaiah StewartPoints31
- Daniss JenkinsAssists15
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–108
- Q422.6Julian Phillips makes 24-foot three point jumper (Lachlan Olbrich assists)93–108
- Q437.9Javonte Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)90–108
- Q455.6Tolu Smith defensive rebound90–105
- Q457.8Lachlan Olbrich misses free throw 2 of 290–105
- Q457.8Ronald Holland II enters the game for Ausar Thompson90–105
- Q457.8Bulls offensive team rebound90–105
- Q457.8Lachlan Olbrich misses free throw 1 of 290–105
- Q457.8Tolu Smith shooting foul90–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:27Ayo Dosunmu makes 26-foot running jump shot (Dalen Terry assists)CHI 72 – 65 DET · CHI 51% → 61% +11CHI 51% → 61%+11 pts
- Q31:18Ayo Dosunmu makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 75 – 69 DET · CHI 49% → 60% +12CHI 49% → 60%+12 pts
- Q39.8Caris LeVert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)CHI 77 – 76 DET · DET 46% → 58% +12DET 46% → 58%+12 pts
- Q411:39Ronald Holland II makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)CHI 77 – 79 DET · DET 58% → 70% +12DET 58% → 70%+12 pts
- Q48:45Ayo Dosunmu makes 27-foot three pointerCHI 83 – 86 DET · CHI 16% → 26% +10CHI 16% → 26%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML CHI +260 / DET -325
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -8
- DET 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- DET: Elo 78.4%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -275
- CHI +275 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.0 – 117.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1611 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | −50 | CHI: Missing Coby White −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −57 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +224 Elo | DET 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 75.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 75.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 118.810th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.6 | Points allowed | 112.14th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.8 | Margin | +6.74th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 115.19th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 108.62nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.5 | Pace | 102.710th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 13–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 148027th of 30 |
| 24th of 301427 | Elo rating | 16114th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−53 Elo- Coby White right calf−17 Elo
Pistons
−50 Elo- Cade Cunningham right wrist injury−57 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–19 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–14 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–6 DET in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Nov 12CHI 113 @ DET 124Picked CHI 58%Miss
- Oct 22DET 111 @ CHI 115Picked DET 61%Miss
- Feb 12DET 128 @ CHI 110Picked DET 67%Hit
- Feb 11DET 132 @ CHI 92Picked DET 64%Hit
- Feb 2CHI 119 @ DET 127Picked DET 67%Hit
- Nov 18CHI 122 @ DET 112Picked DET 61%Miss
- Apr 11CHI 127 @ DET 105Picked CHI 66%Hit
- Feb 27DET 105 @ CHI 95Picked CHI 79%Miss