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New York Knicks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast

FinalPeacock

Away

Knicks

23-13

90–121

at

Home

Pistons

27-9

NY 53%DET 47%

You didn't pick this one.

Little Caesars Arena · Peacock

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.

DET favored NY favored103 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4DET50%NY

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Knicks
Pistons

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game90–121
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–121
  • Q414.2Marcus Sasser bad pass turnover (Pacome Dadiet steals)90–121
  • Q437.0Kevin McCullar Jr. makes driving layup (Pacome Dadiet assists)90–121
  • Q451.3Daniss Jenkins makes 4-foot running dunk (Marcus Sasser assists)88–121
  • Q454.5Kevin McCullar Jr. bad pass turnover (Marcus Sasser steals)88–119
  • Q41:05Javonte Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chaz Lanier assists)88–119
  • Q41:14Ariel Hukporti lost ball turnover (Chaz Lanier steals)88–116
  • Q41:26Marcus Sasser makes 4-foot layup (Javonte Green assists)88–116
  • Q41:40Tolu Smith defensive rebound88–114

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q211:40Daniss Jenkins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)NY 29 – 33 DET · DET 50% → 57% +7
  2. Q210:27Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)NY 32 – 35 DET · NY 38% → 45% +7
  3. Q26:34Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot running jump shot (Tyler Kolek assists)NY 42 – 45 DET · NY 37% → 45% +8
  4. Q22:18Miles McBride makes 26-foot three pointer (Kevin McCullar Jr. assists)NY 50 – 55 DET · NY 31% → 39% +8
  5. Q22:05Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)NY 50 – 58 DET · DET 62% → 69% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Knicks 53%

Toss-upMiss
NY 53%DET 47%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
NY -1.5
ML NY -125 / DET +105
Pre-line forecast
NY 51%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NY -1
NY 53%
Ratings vs. market
0.0 pts
NY: Elo 53.2%, market 53.2%
Fair odds
NY -114
DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
NY 117.5 – 116.0 DET
Posted spread, posted total 233.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorNYDETWhy
Team rating15891587Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest—−40DET on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+18+2NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Usual rotation (from the box score)
Elo ratingsNY +22 EloNY 53.2%
Market-implied ratingsNY 50.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNY 51.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNY 53.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons compared, with each team's league rank
NYStatDET
4th of 30120.6Points scored118.811th of 30
12th of 30114.9Points allowed112.75th of 30
6th of 30+5.6Margin+6.05th of 30
4th of 30119.1Offense rating114.89th of 30
16th of 30113.6Defense rating109.02nd of 30
22nd of 30101.1Pace102.910th of 30
14th of 305–5Last 106–45th of 30
13th of 307–8Road vs home12–33rd of 30
25th of 301483Opponent Elo147928th of 30
6th of 301589Elo rating15877th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Knicks

+18 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pistons

+2 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KnicksPistons
1450155016501750league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonNYDET
Against the spread18–1819–16
Last 101–95–5
Favorite16–1513–15
Underdog2–36–1
Overs–unders21–1517–18
Overs–unders, last 107–33–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

NY 8–5 DET in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.