Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists7
- Ronald Holland IIRebounds10
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints30
- Darius GarlandAssists6
- Jaylon TysonRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–110
- Q40.0Cavaliers offensive team rebound114–110
- Q40.0Donovan Mitchell misses heave jump shot114–110
- Q43.2Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2114–110
- Q43.2Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2113–110
- Q43.2De'Andre Hunter enters the game for Sam Merrill112–110
- Q43.2Sam Merrill personal foul112–110
- Q43.8Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)112–110
- Q45.7Darius Garland enters the game for Thomas Bryant112–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:50Javonte Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniss Jenkins assists)DET 80 – 77 CLE · DET 45% → 57% +11DET 45% → 57%+11 pts
- Q345.1De'Andre Hunter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)DET 87 – 82 CLE · CLE 24% → 35% +10CLE 24% → 35%+10 pts
- Q42:47Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three pointer (Darius Garland assists)DET 106 – 102 CLE · CLE 7% → 21% +14CLE 7% → 21%+14 pts
- Q42:03Isaiah Stewart makes 1-foot layup (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 108 – 104 CLE · DET 68% → 83% +16DET 68% → 83%+16 pts
- Q41:16Darius Garland makes 9-foot driving floating jump shotDET 108 – 106 CLE · CLE 11% → 27% +17CLE 11% → 27%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML DET +130 / CLE -155
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -140
- DET +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 118.0 – 121.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +12 | DET: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Missing Jarrett Allen −32 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +28 Elo | CLE 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 119.48th of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 116.917th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.1 | Margin | +2.610th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 114.810th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.0 | Defense rating | 112.314th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.9 | Pace | 103.38th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–6 | Road vs home | 13–813th of 30 |
| 28th of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 148921st of 30 |
| 7th of 301580 | Elo rating | 155210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+12 Elo- Jarrett Allen injury/illness−32 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–16 | 12–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–15 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 17–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–8 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Oct 27CLE 116 @ DET 95Picked CLE 54%Hit
- Mar 28CLE 122 @ DET 133Picked CLE 69%Miss
- Feb 5CLE 118 @ DET 115Picked CLE 60%Hit
- Jan 27DET 91 @ CLE 110Picked CLE 79%Hit
- Oct 25DET 101 @ CLE 113Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Mar 1CLE 110 @ DET 100Picked CLE 68%Hit
- Jan 31DET 121 @ CLE 128Picked CLE 83%Hit
- Dec 2CLE 110 @ DET 101Picked CLE 68%Hit