Brooklyn Nets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points28
- Nolan TraoreAssists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds12
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints27
- Naji MarshallAssists9
- Dwight PowellRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–113
- Q414.0Max Christie defensive rebound105–113
- Q415.7Michael Porter Jr. misses alley oop layup105–113
- Q420.4Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2105–113
- Q420.4Mavericks offensive team rebound105–112
- Q420.4Cooper Flagg misses free throw 1 of 2105–112
- Q420.4Terance Mann shooting foul105–112
- Q426.3Mavericks defensive team rebound105–112
- Q427.1Drake Powell misses driving floating jump shot105–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:46Tyrese Martin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)BKN 80 – 84 DAL · BKN 20% → 30% +10BKN 20% → 30%+10 pts
- Q46:21Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)BKN 90 – 96 DAL · DAL 69% → 83% +13DAL 69% → 83%+13 pts
- Q46:05Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Nolan Traore assists)BKN 93 – 96 DAL · BKN 17% → 30% +13BKN 17% → 30%+13 pts
- Q45:46Naji Marshall makes 10-foot turnaround jump shotBKN 93 – 98 DAL · DAL 70% → 80% +10DAL 70% → 80%+10 pts
- Q43:24Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)BKN 98 – 103 DAL · BKN 5% → 15% +10BKN 5% → 15%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML BKN +130 / DAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- DAL: Elo 50.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -140
- BKN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 107.5 – 111.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +26 | −74 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −25 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +4 Elo | DAL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 113.024th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 117.119th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.0 | Margin | −4.224th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 107.728th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.9 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–10 | Road vs home | 10–1018th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149419th of 30 |
| 28th of 301388 | Elo rating | 141625th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−74 Elo- Daniel Gafford sprained right ankle−25 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–18 | 16–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 2–11 |
| Underdog | 17–18 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders | 15–21 | 16–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–4 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.