Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Noah ClowneyPoints17
- Nolan TraoreAssists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds13
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints21
- Cam SpencerAssists13
- Jock LandaleRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–103
- Q41.9Santi Aldama defensive rebound98–103
- Q44.8Danny Wolf misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot98–103
- Q410.0Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 298–103
- Q410.0Jock Landale enters the game for Cam Spencer98–102
- Q410.0Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 298–102
- Q410.0Danny Wolf personal foul98–101
- Q411.3Jaylen Wells enters the game for Jock Landale98–101
- Q411.3Grizzlies Full timeout98–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:14Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 27-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)BKN 91 – 90 MEM · MEM 32% → 50% +18MEM 32% → 50%+18 pts
- Q44:24Tyrese Martin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nolan Traore assists)BKN 94 – 90 MEM · BKN 51% → 70% +20BKN 51% → 70%+20 pts
- Q42:18Cedric Coward makes 24-foot running jump shot (Cam Spencer assists)BKN 98 – 96 MEM · MEM 14% → 36% +22MEM 14% → 36%+22 pts
- Q41:37Santi Aldama makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Cam Spencer assists)BKN 98 – 98 MEM · MEM 32% → 54% +22MEM 32% → 54%+22 pts
- Q459.6Cedric Coward makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)BKN 98 – 101 MEM · MEM 53% → 88% +35MEM 53% → 88%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -7.5
- ML BKN +215 / MEM -265
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3
- MEM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- MEM: Elo 61.8%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- MEM -229
- BKN +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 106.5 – 114.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1393 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −36 | BKN: Missing Michael Porter Jr. −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +83 Elo | MEM 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 64.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30109.1 | Points scored | 115.220th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 116.718th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.0 | Margin | −1.419th of 30 |
| 26th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 110.425th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 111.712th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.0 | Pace | 103.85th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 8–1123rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 30 |
| 26th of 301393 | Elo rating | 149415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+18 Elo- Michael Porter Jr. rest−39 Elo
Grizzlies
−36 Elo- Brandon Clarke strained right calf−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–18 | 17–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 16–18 | 8–16 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 15–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–2 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.