Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints26
- Jalen WilliamsAssists10
- Kenrich WilliamsRebounds8
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points23
- Cam SpencerAssists11
- Jock LandaleRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–116
- Q40.7Luguentz Dort defensive rebound117–116
- Q40.7Alex Caruso blocks Cedric Coward 's 13-foot floating jump shot117–116
- Q415.5Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound117–116
- Q417.5Jalen Williams misses two point shot117–116
- Q437.3Jock Landale makes 9-foot two point shot117–116
- Q439.5Jock Landale offensive rebound117–114
- Q442.1Cedric Coward misses 26-foot three point jumper117–114
- Q458.9Luguentz Dort makes free throw 2 of 2117–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:26Ajay Mitchell makes 26-foot running jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 112 – 114 MEM · OKC 14% → 36% +21OKC 14% → 36%+21 pts
- Q41:07Kenrich Williams makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 115 – 114 MEM · OKC 27% → 66% +39OKC 27% → 66%+39 pts
- Q458.9Luguentz Dort makes free throw 1 of 2OKC 116 – 114 MEM · OKC 66% → 78% +12OKC 66% → 78%+12 pts
- Q458.9Luguentz Dort makes free throw 2 of 2OKC 117 – 114 MEM · OKC 78% → 88% +9OKC 78% → 88%+9 pts
- Q437.3Jock Landale makes 9-foot two point shotOKC 117 – 116 MEM · MEM 8% → 31% +23MEM 8% → 31%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -5.5
- ML OKC -218 / MEM +180
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1.5
- OKC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- OKC: Elo 55.2%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- OKC -192
- MEM +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.5 – 112.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1672 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −135 | −33 | OKC: Missing Jaylin Williams −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +36 Elo | OKC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.4 | Points scored | 115.219th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.1 | Points allowed | 116.617th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.4 | Margin | −1.418th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 110.225th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.7 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 18th of 30101.6 | Pace | 103.95th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–4 | Road vs home | 8–1023rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 15049th of 30 |
| 1st of 301672 | Elo rating | 149815th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−135 Elo- Jaylin Williams right heel−6 Elo
Grizzlies
−33 Elo- Brandon Clarke right calf strain−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–19 | 16–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–19 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | — | 7–16 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 14–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 13–0 MEM in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 13.
- Dec 22MEM 103 @ OKC 119Picked OKC 89%Hit
- Nov 9OKC 114 @ MEM 100Picked OKC 79%Hit
- Apr 26OKC 117 @ MEM 115PlayoffsPicked OKC 89%Hit
- Apr 24OKC 114 @ MEM 108PlayoffsPicked OKC 77%Hit
- Apr 22MEM 99 @ OKC 118PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Apr 20MEM 80 @ OKC 131PlayoffsPicked OKC 86%Hit
- Mar 27MEM 104 @ OKC 125Picked OKC 80%Hit
- Mar 5OKC 120 @ MEM 103Picked OKC 70%Hit