San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints30
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Julian ChampagnieRebounds8
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points21
- Cam SpencerAssists8
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–106
- Q45.2Cam Spencer defensive rebound105–106
- Q45.2Santi Aldama blocks De'Aaron Fox 's 14-foot step back jumpshot105–106
- Q414.3Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound105–106
- Q415.6Jock Landale misses free throw 2 of 2105–106
- Q415.6Grizzlies offensive team rebound105–106
- Q415.6Jock Landale misses free throw 1 of 2105–106
- Q415.6Jeremy Sochan personal foul105–106
- Q423.6Jock Landale defensive rebound105–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:46Victor Wembanyama makes 25-foot running jump shot (Stephon Castle assists)SA 98 – 97 MEM · SA 41% → 62% +22SA 41% → 62%+22 pts
- Q42:44Jock Landale makes alley oop layup (Jaylen Wells assists)SA 100 – 101 MEM · MEM 37% → 54% +17MEM 37% → 54%+17 pts
- Q42:28De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointer (Luke Kornet assists)SA 103 – 101 MEM · SA 45% → 71% +26SA 45% → 71%+26 pts
- Q41:26Cam Spencer makes 27-foot three pointer (Vince Williams Jr. assists)SA 105 – 104 MEM · MEM 10% → 35% +25MEM 10% → 35%+25 pts
- Q437.3Cam Spencer makes 18-foot step back jumpshotSA 105 – 106 MEM · MEM 30% → 66% +35MEM 30% → 66%+35 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML SA -245 / MEM +200
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5
- SA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- SA: Elo 69.2%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- SA -213
- MEM +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 121.5 – 116.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +71 | −35 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Cedric Coward −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MEM crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +141 Elo | SA 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 72.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 116.019th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 117.017th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.1 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 111.911th of 30 |
| 16th of 30102.0 | Pace | 103.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–5 | Road vs home | 7–922nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 11th of 301547 | Elo rating | 150115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−35 Elo- Cedric Coward left ankle−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–16 | 15–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 6–15 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19 | 14–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–6 MEM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Dec 2MEM 119 @ SA 126Picked SA 64%Hit
- Nov 18MEM 101 @ SA 111Picked SA 68%Hit
- Mar 1SA 130 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 65%Miss
- Feb 3SA 109 @ MEM 128Picked MEM 59%Hit
- Jan 17MEM 140 @ SA 112Picked SA 53%Miss
- Jan 15MEM 129 @ SA 115Picked MEM 56%Hit
- Apr 9SA 102 @ MEM 87Picked MEM 56%Miss
- Mar 22MEM 99 @ SA 97Picked SA 58%Miss