Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints21
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Mark WilliamsRebounds12
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points19
- Javon SmallAssists7
- Jock LandaleRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–98
- Q40.0(00:00) [Suns] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)117–98
- Q43.5shot clock turnover117–98
- Q427.8Javon Small makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot117–98
- Q441.7Nick Richards makes 1-foot dunk (Jordan Goodwin assists)117–95
- Q453.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 1-foot running dunk115–95
- Q454.3Isaiah Livers bad pass
turnover (Olivier-Maxence Prosper steals)115–93
- Q41:08Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound115–93
- Q41:11Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 23-foot three point jumper115–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:41Royce O'Neale makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 3 – 4 MEM · PHX 56% → 62% +6PHX 56% → 62%+6 pts
- Q19:52Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 6 – 6 MEM · PHX 58% → 64% +6PHX 58% → 64%+6 pts
- Q15:27Grayson Allen makes 25-foot running jump shot (Devin Booker assists)PHX 15 – 11 MEM · PHX 66% → 72% +6PHX 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q13:13Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointer (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 22 – 16 MEM · PHX 69% → 75% +6PHX 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q122.0Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 30 – 23 MEM · PHX 71% → 77% +6PHX 71% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML PHX -205 / MEM +170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4
- PHX 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 65.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PHX -181
- MEM +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 118.5 – 113.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +4 | −40 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +113 Elo | PHX 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.8 | Points scored | 115.718th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 116.616th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.918th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 110.624th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 111.511th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 13th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 7th of 301573 | Elo rating | 150814th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–11 | 16–20 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–2 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 7–15 |
| Overs–unders | 16–20 | 14–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–6 MEM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Oct 29MEM 114 @ PHX 113Picked MEM 54%Hit
- Mar 10PHX 118 @ MEM 120Picked MEM 57%Hit
- Feb 25PHX 148 @ MEM 151Picked MEM 70%Hit
- Feb 11MEM 119 @ PHX 112Picked MEM 59%Hit
- Dec 31MEM 117 @ PHX 112Picked PHX 66%Miss
- Jan 7MEM 121 @ PHX 115Picked PHX 74%Miss
- Dec 2MEM 109 @ PHX 116Picked PHX 70%Hit
- Nov 24PHX 110 @ MEM 89Picked PHX 55%Hit