Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints27
- Grayson AllenAssists6
- Oso IghodaroRebounds8
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints26
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Steven AdamsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–100
- Q41.1Collin Gillespie enters the game for Oso Ighodaro97–100
- Q41.1Josh Okogie enters the game for Steven Adams97–100
- Q41.1Suns Full timeout97–100
- Q41.1Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointer (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)97–100
- Q45.1Steven Adams enters the game for Josh Okogie97–97
- Q45.1Rockets Full timeout97–97
- Q45.1shot clock turnover97–97
- Q45.1Suns offensive team rebound97–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:51Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)PHX 80 – 83 HOU · HOU 61% → 73% +12HOU 61% → 73%+12 pts
- Q43:30Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Goodwin assists)PHX 93 – 94 HOU · PHX 18% → 36% +19PHX 18% → 36%+19 pts
- Q42:54Dillon Brooks makes 9-foot fade away jump shotPHX 95 – 94 HOU · PHX 36% → 53% +17PHX 36% → 53%+17 pts
- Q41:59Amen Thompson makes 2-foot two point shotPHX 97 – 96 HOU · HOU 26% → 45% +19HOU 26% → 45%+19 pts
- Q41.1Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointer (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)PHX 97 – 100 HOU · HOU 50% → >99% +50HOU 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -8.5
- ML PHX +245 / HOU -305
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- HOU 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 63.4%, market 72.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -260
- PHX +260 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 107.0 – 115.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1599 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +8 | −6 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +96 Elo | HOU 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 73.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 72.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 120.04th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 111.43rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +8.62nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 111.16th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.1 | Pace | 98.328th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 12th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 10–22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149816th of 30 |
| 7th of 301577 | Elo rating | 15995th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–11 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–2 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–7 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Dec 5PHX 98 @ HOU 117Picked HOU 76%Hit
- Nov 24HOU 114 @ PHX 92Picked HOU 69%Hit
- Mar 30HOU 148 @ PHX 109Picked HOU 57%Hit
- Mar 12PHX 104 @ HOU 111Picked HOU 61%Hit
- Feb 12PHX 111 @ HOU 119Picked HOU 77%Hit
- Mar 2HOU 118 @ PHX 109Picked PHX 73%Miss
- Feb 29HOU 105 @ PHX 110Picked PHX 72%Hit
- Feb 23PHX 110 @ HOU 114Picked PHX 55%Miss