LA Clippers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints31
- James HardenAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds6
Nets- Egor DeminPoints19
- Michael Porter Jr.Assists6
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–105
- Q420.7Nolan Traore makes running layup121–105
- Q421.5Nolan Traore defensive rebound121–103
- Q424.4Jalen Wilson blocks Kobe Brown 's 2-foot driving layup121–103
- Q431.3Clippers offensive team rebound121–103
- Q431.3Danny Wolf blocks Kobe Brown 's 7-foot hook shot121–103
- Q431.6Kobe Brown offensive rebound121–103
- Q435.7Jordan Miller misses 24-foot three point jumper121–103
- Q446.1Jordan Miller defensive rebound121–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:25John Collins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)LAC 3 – 0 BKN · LAC 66% → 71% +6LAC 66% → 71%+6 pts
- Q110:48Kawhi Leonard makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotLAC 6 – 0 BKN · LAC 71% → 76% +5LAC 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q12:07Danny Wolf makes 24-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)LAC 28 – 21 BKN · BKN 17% → 22% +5BKN 17% → 22%+5 pts
- Q39:40Egor Demin makes 26-foot three point jumperLAC 65 – 54 BKN · BKN 9% → 13% +4BKN 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q37:43Kawhi Leonard makes 24-foot three pointerLAC 70 – 58 BKN · LAC 84% → 89% +5LAC 84% → 89%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML LAC -218 / BKN +180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- LAC: Elo 57.1%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -192
- BKN +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 110.0 – 104.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +43 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +49 Elo | LAC 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 68.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 109.330th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 114.09th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.4 | Margin | −4.725th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 109.926th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 114.619th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.7 | Pace | 99.127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–14 | Road vs home | 5–1428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 13th of 301520 | Elo rating | 140425th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–21 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders | 18–18 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–1 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.