LA Clippers at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints25
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–123
- Q40.1Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound111–123
- Q40.4Yanic Konan Niederhauser misses 12-foot turnaround jump shot111–123
- Q40.6Cam Christie vs. Mohamed Diawara (Yanic Konan Niederhauser gains possession)111–123
- Q412.6shot clock turnover111–123
- Q434.9Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound111–123
- Q436.7Cam Christie misses driving layup111–123
- Q439.3Clippers offensive team rebound111–123
- Q439.3Yanic Konan Niederhauser misses two point shot111–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:34OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)LAC 68 – 67 NY · NY 46% → 56% +10NY 46% → 56%+10 pts
- Q35:58Guerschon Yabusele makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)LAC 72 – 73 NY · NY 52% → 62% +10NY 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q34:16Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 79 – 77 NY · LAC 38% → 49% +11LAC 38% → 49%+11 pts
- Q33:44James Harden makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 82 – 79 NY · LAC 42% → 52% +11LAC 42% → 52%+11 pts
- Q32:42Brook Lopez makes 28-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 85 – 81 NY · LAC 46% → 57% +11LAC 46% → 57%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -4.5
- ML LAC +170 / NY -205
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3.5
- NY 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- NY: Elo 63.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- NY -181
- LAC +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 109.5 – 114.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | +4 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +98 Elo | NY 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 119.74th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 115.112th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +4.68th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 118.54th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 113.916th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.8 | Pace | 100.920th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 15–44th of 30 |
| 4th of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 148524th of 30 |
| 13th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15658th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–20 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 16–16 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–1 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.