Charlotte Hornets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Tre MannPoints20
- Kon KnueppelAssists6
- Moussa DiabateRebounds10
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints26
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game150–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter150–95
- Q422.3shot clock turnover150–95
- Q446.4Cody Williams makes free throw 2 of 2150–95
- Q446.4Cody Williams makes free throw 1 of 2150–94
- Q446.4Josh Green shooting foul150–93
- Q453.6Tre Mann makes 11-foot pullup jump shot150–93
- Q41:12Isaiah Collier makes driving layup148–93
- Q41:19Sion James personal foul148–91
- Q41:30Tre Mann makes 28-foot three pointer148–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:34Brandon Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)CHA 3 – 0 UTAH · CHA 64% → 70% +6CHA 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q110:50LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 6 – 0 UTAH · CHA 70% → 75% +5CHA 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q110:17Kon Knueppel makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 9 – 2 UTAH · CHA 72% → 77% +5CHA 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q18:57Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 14 – 4 UTAH · CHA 77% → 82% +5CHA 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q18:14Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)CHA 19 – 6 UTAH · CHA 82% → 86% +4CHA 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -6.5
- ML CHA -205 / UTAH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2
- CHA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- CHA: Elo 58.4%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHA -181
- UTAH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 124.0 – 117.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −50 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −56, Jusuf Nurkic −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +59 Elo | CHA 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 119.65th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 126.730th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −7.126th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 119.930th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.9 | Pace | 103.93rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 306–13 | Road vs home | 9–1122nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15342nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301432 | Elo rating | 139926th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−50 Elo- Lauri Markkanen rest−56 Elo
- Jusuf Nurkic left toe−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–16 | 21–16 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 20–12 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 14–24 | 23–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 4–1 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.