Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints28
- Jamal SheadAssists6
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds15
Hornets- Collin SextonPoints22
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Moussa DiabateRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–96
- Q40.0(00:00) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)97–96
- Q40.0Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)97–96
- Q41.6Hornets Full timeout94–96
- Q41.6Tidjane Salaun enters the game for LaMelo Ball94–96
- Q41.6Raptors Full timeout94–96
- Q41.6LaMelo Ball makes driving layup94–96
- Q420.1RJ Barrett makes 8-foot two point shot94–94
- Q435.8Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 292–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:31Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)TOR 89 – 92 CHA · CHA 49% → 74% +25CHA 49% → 74%+25 pts
- Q456.4RJ Barrett makes driving layupTOR 91 – 92 CHA · TOR 14% → 36% +23TOR 14% → 36%+23 pts
- Q420.1RJ Barrett makes 8-foot two point shotTOR 94 – 94 CHA · TOR 11% → 50% +40TOR 11% → 50%+40 pts
- Q41.6LaMelo Ball makes driving layupTOR 94 – 96 CHA · CHA 50% → >99% +50CHA 50% → >99%+50 pts
- Q40.0Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)TOR 97 – 96 CHA · TOR 0% → 100% +100TOR 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML TOR -135 / CHA +114
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- CHA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.0 – 113.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | +41 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | TOR +1 Elo | TOR 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.5 | Points scored | 116.118th of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 117.921st of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −1.819th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 113.812th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 115.621st of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.120th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 7–1024th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 148921st of 30 |
| 18th of 301473 | Elo rating | 144322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–19 | 21–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 14–23 | 14–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–4 CHA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.
- Dec 5CHA 111 @ TOR 86Picked TOR 70%Miss
- Nov 29TOR 111 @ CHA 118Picked TOR 71%Miss
- Nov 17CHA 108 @ TOR 110Picked TOR 73%Hit
- Apr 9CHA 96 @ TOR 126Picked TOR 80%Hit
- Mar 28CHA 97 @ TOR 108Picked TOR 66%Hit
- Oct 30TOR 133 @ CHA 138Picked CHA 68%Hit
- Mar 3CHA 106 @ TOR 111Picked TOR 54%Hit
- Feb 7TOR 123 @ CHA 117Picked TOR 56%Hit