Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints30
- T.J. McConnellAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds14
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints33
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Kon KnueppelRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–112
- Q40.7Johnny Furphy defensive rebound114–112
- Q40.7Collin Sexton misses 17-foot step back jumpshot114–112
- Q48.0Quenton Jackson enters the game for T.J. McConnell114–112
- Q48.0Collin Sexton enters the game for Moussa Diabate114–112
- Q48.0LaMelo Ball enters the game for Josh Green114–112
- Q48.0Hornets Full timeout114–112
- Q48.0Ben Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 2114–112
- Q48.0Johnny Furphy enters the game for Jay Huff113–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:33Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 101 – 97 CHA · IND 50% → 66% +15IND 50% → 66%+15 pts
- Q45:52Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)IND 104 – 104 CHA · CHA 37% → 54% +18CHA 37% → 54%+18 pts
- Q43:32Pascal Siakam makes 3-foot two point shotIND 108 – 106 CHA · IND 47% → 62% +15IND 47% → 62%+15 pts
- Q451.1T.J. McConnell makes 12-foot pullup jump shotIND 111 – 112 CHA · IND 11% → 33% +22IND 11% → 33%+22 pts
- Q411.5Pascal Siakam makes driving layupIND 113 – 112 CHA · IND 20% → 79% +59IND 20% → 79%+59 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -4.5
- ML IND +154 / CHA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -5
- CHA 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.7 pts
- CHA: Elo 69.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- CHA -165
- IND +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 114.0 – 118.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1380 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −52 | +31 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +139 Elo | CHA 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30110.8 | Points scored | 115.518th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 117.320th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | −1.819th of 30 |
| 29th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 113.612th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 115.321st of 30 |
| 12th of 30102.5 | Pace | 100.922nd of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–16 | Road vs home | 7–1124th of 30 |
| 7th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 148921st of 30 |
| 28th of 301380 | Elo rating | 143922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–19 | 22–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 16–16 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 15–22 | 14–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–4 CHA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Nov 19CHA 118 @ IND 127Picked CHA 54%Miss
- Apr 2CHA 105 @ IND 119Picked IND 86%Hit
- Dec 8CHA 113 @ IND 109Picked IND 84%Miss
- Nov 8IND 83 @ CHA 103Picked IND 70%Miss
- Feb 12IND 102 @ CHA 111Picked IND 71%Miss
- Feb 4IND 115 @ CHA 99Picked IND 75%Hit
- Dec 20CHA 113 @ IND 144Picked IND 71%Hit
- Nov 4CHA 125 @ IND 124Picked IND 54%Miss