Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints29
- Craig Porter Jr.Assists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints22
- Andrew NembhardAssists11
- Johnny FurphyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–116
- Q42.2Andrew Nembhard bad pass
turnover (Evan Mobley steals)120–116
- Q42.8Jarrett Allen makes free throw 2 of 2120–116
- Q42.8Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 2119–116
- Q42.8Jay Huff personal take foul118–116
- Q42.8Jarrett Allen defensive rebound118–116
- Q43.8Aaron Nesmith misses free throw 2 of 2118–116
- Q43.8Jay Huff enters the game for Micah Potter118–116
- Q43.8Johnny Furphy enters the game for Ethan Thompson118–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:22Sam Merrill makes 25-foot three pointer (Craig Porter Jr. assists)CLE 91 – 95 IND · CLE 29% → 41% +12CLE 29% → 41%+12 pts
- Q47:25Andrew Nembhard makes 29-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)CLE 98 – 100 IND · IND 38% → 53% +16IND 38% → 53%+16 pts
- Q433.5Pascal Siakam makes 3-foot two point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)CLE 115 – 113 IND · IND 2% → 15% +13IND 2% → 15%+13 pts
- Q433.5Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 1CLE 115 – 114 IND · IND 15% → 30% +14IND 15% → 30%+14 pts
- Q412.5Darius Garland makes 16-foot pullup jump shotCLE 117 – 114 IND · CLE 79% → >99% +20CLE 79% → >99%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML CLE -245 / IND +200
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CLE: Elo 68.8%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -213
- IND +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 122.0 – 115.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1383 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | −54 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +138 Elo | CLE 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 110.628th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 119.724th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −9.128th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 107.329th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 116.023rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.3 | Pace | 102.512th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 13th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 5–1430th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 11th of 301545 | Elo rating | 138328th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–25 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–22 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–20 | 15–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–9 IND in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.
- Dec 1CLE 135 @ IND 119Picked CLE 63%Hit
- Nov 21IND 109 @ CLE 120Picked CLE 85%Hit
- May 13IND 114 @ CLE 105PlayoffsPicked CLE 73%Miss
- May 11CLE 109 @ IND 129PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Miss
- May 9CLE 126 @ IND 104PlayoffsPicked CLE 66%Hit
- May 6IND 120 @ CLE 119PlayoffsPicked CLE 67%Miss
- May 4IND 121 @ CLE 112PlayoffsPicked CLE 76%Miss
- Apr 13IND 126 @ CLE 118Picked IND 68%Hit