Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints30
- LaMelo BallAssists11
- Miles BridgesRebounds8
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints39
- LeBron JamesAssists6
- LeBron JamesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–117
- Q42.0shot clock turnover135–117
- Q416.0Bronny James personal foul135–117
- Q433.9Pat Connaughton defensive rebound135–117
- Q439.2Nick Smith Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper135–117
- Q449.0Sion James makes layup135–117
- Q450.0Sion James offensive rebound133–117
- Q451.1Kobe Bufkin blocks Sion James 's 13-foot driving floating jump shot133–117
- Q41:12Sion James defensive rebound133–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:57Kon Knueppel makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 87 – 77 LAL · CHA 67% → 75% +8CHA 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q35:57LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 90 – 81 LAL · CHA 64% → 73% +9CHA 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q34:46Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Collin Sexton assists)CHA 93 – 84 LAL · CHA 65% → 74% +9CHA 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q34:00Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 93 – 89 LAL · LAL 31% → 41% +10LAL 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q331.2Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)CHA 104 – 93 LAL · CHA 76% → 84% +9CHA 76% → 84%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -3.5
- ML CHA +136 / LAL -162
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2
- LAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 58.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -146
- CHA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.0 – 118.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −13 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +59 Elo | LAL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 116.515th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 116.417th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 115.87th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 115.824th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.8 | Pace | 100.523rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–14 | Road vs home | 11–713th of 30 |
| 28th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 149615th of 30 |
| 21st of 301454 | Elo rating | 151913th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–17 | 21–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 13–9 |
| Underdog | 20–13 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–24 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–4 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.