Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints42
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints32
- Malik MonkAssists8
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–124
- Q48.6Bronny James makes 24-foot three point jumper (Maxi Kleber assists)112–124
- Q415.2shot clock turnover109–124
- Q439.2Dalton Knecht makes 3-foot driving dunk109–124
- Q446.3Maxime Raynaud makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot107–124
- Q41:06Bronny James makes 24-foot three pointer (Dalton Knecht assists)107–122
- Q41:18DeMar DeRozan makes 8-foot two point shot104–122
- Q41:37Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound104–120
- Q41:38Dalton Knecht misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot104–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:12Malik Monk makes 25-foot running jump shot (Russell Westbrook assists)LAL 39 – 51 SAC · SAC 54% → 62% +8SAC 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q23:42Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)LAL 41 – 54 SAC · SAC 57% → 65% +8SAC 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q20.9Luka Doncic makes 26-foot driving floating jump shotLAL 54 – 61 SAC · LAL 40% → 49% +9LAL 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q39:34Russell Westbrook makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)LAL 56 – 70 SAC · SAC 66% → 74% +8SAC 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q47:49Malik Monk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)LAL 95 – 105 SAC · SAC 74% → 85% +11SAC 74% → 85%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -9.5
- ML LAL -360 / SAC +285
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -5.5
- LAL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- LAL: Elo 70.5%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -301
- SAC +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 120.5 – 111.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | −61 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +151 Elo | LAL 70.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 72.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 109.829th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 121.427th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −11.630th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 106.730th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 118.028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.915th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–6 | Road vs home | 6–1327th of 30 |
| 14th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15441st of 30 |
| 13th of 301517 | Elo rating | 141026th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–16 | 14–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–8 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 13–23 |
| Overs–unders | 21–15 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–4 SAC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.
- Dec 28SAC 101 @ LAL 125Picked LAL 80%Hit
- Oct 26LAL 127 @ SAC 120Picked SAC 56%Miss
- Dec 28SAC 122 @ LAL 132Picked SAC 59%Miss
- Dec 21LAL 103 @ SAC 99Picked SAC 60%Miss
- Dec 19LAL 113 @ SAC 100Picked SAC 63%Miss
- Oct 26SAC 127 @ LAL 131Picked LAL 51%Hit
- Mar 13LAL 107 @ SAC 120Picked LAL 58%Miss
- Mar 6SAC 130 @ LAL 120Picked LAL 64%Miss