Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints31
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Amen ThompsonRebounds13
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints22
- Russell WestbrookAssists10
- Dylan CardwellRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–111
- Q411.3shot clock turnover98–111
- Q436.6Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)98–111
- Q443.0Maxime Raynaud makes 5-foot two point shot (Russell Westbrook assists)95–111
- Q41:00Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound95–109
- Q41:02Alperen Sengun misses free throw 2 of 295–109
- Q41:02Rockets offensive team rebound95–109
- Q41:02Alperen Sengun misses free throw 1 of 295–109
- Q41:02Maxime Raynaud shooting foul95–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:40Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)HOU 76 – 81 SAC · SAC 39% → 51% +12SAC 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q49:10Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)HOU 84 – 90 SAC · SAC 46% → 61% +14SAC 46% → 61%+14 pts
- Q45:20Alperen Sengun makes driving layup (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 92 – 94 SAC · HOU 39% → 51% +12HOU 39% → 51%+12 pts
- Q44:20Malik Monk makes 23-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)HOU 92 – 97 SAC · SAC 52% → 71% +20SAC 52% → 71%+20 pts
- Q43:49Malik Monk makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)HOU 92 – 100 SAC · SAC 74% → 88% +15SAC 74% → 88%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -14.5
- ML HOU -750 / SAC +525
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9
- HOU 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 81.0%, market 84.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -551
- SAC +551 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 119.0 – 104.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1588 | 1385 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | −68 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +252 Elo | HOU 81.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 83.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 83.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 84.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 109.829th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 122.127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.7 | Margin | −12.330th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 106.330th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 118.328th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 102.314th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 5–1328th of 30 |
| 18th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15431st of 30 |
| 7th of 301588 | Elo rating | 138527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–17 | 13–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–17 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 12–23 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 17–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–4 SAC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Dec 21HOU 124 @ SAC 125Picked HOU 83%Miss
- Dec 3SAC 95 @ HOU 121Picked HOU 89%Hit
- Mar 1SAC 113 @ HOU 103Picked HOU 61%Miss
- Jan 16HOU 127 @ SAC 132Picked SAC 64%Hit
- Dec 3HOU 111 @ SAC 120Picked SAC 53%Hit
- Mar 10HOU 112 @ SAC 104Picked SAC 63%Miss
- Nov 6SAC 97 @ HOU 122Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Nov 4SAC 89 @ HOU 107Picked SAC 51%Miss