Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Kevin DurantAssists4
- Kevin DurantRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Toumani CamaraPoints25
- Deni AvdijaAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–111
- Q46.0Kevin Durant bad pass
turnover (Sidy Cissoko steals)105–111
- Q47.8Donovan Clingan makes free throw 2 of 2105–111
- Q47.8Donovan Clingan makes free throw 1 of 2105–110
- Q47.8Amen Thompson personal take foul105–109
- Q47.8Donovan Clingan defensive rebound105–109
- Q410.1Reed Sheppard misses 24-foot three point jumper105–109
- Q413.8Steven Adams enters the game for Josh Okogie105–109
- Q413.8Donovan Clingan enters the game for Caleb Love105–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:32Kevin Durant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 97 – 93 POR · HOU 63% → 78% +16HOU 63% → 78%+16 pts
- Q43:54Deni Avdija makes 24-foot three point jumper (Duop Reath assists)HOU 99 – 98 POR · POR 19% → 37% +18POR 19% → 37%+18 pts
- Q42:00Amen Thompson makes 1-foot dunk (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 101 – 102 POR · HOU 25% → 44% +19HOU 25% → 44%+19 pts
- Q41:30Kevin Durant makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 103 – 105 POR · HOU 14% → 31% +17HOU 14% → 31%+17 pts
- Q41:03Sidy Cissoko makes dunk (Shaedon Sharpe assists)HOU 103 – 107 POR · POR 74% → 91% +17POR 74% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML HOU -258 / POR +210
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.5%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -223
- POR +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.5 – 108.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +35 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Jrue Holiday −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +52 Elo | HOU 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 65.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 116.515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 119.124th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.1 | Margin | −2.622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.8 | Offense rating | 111.623rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 114.118th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 103.76th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 9–918th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15223rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301597 | Elo rating | 146821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+35 Elo- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–16 | 21–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–16 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–16 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–3 POR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Jan 7HOU 102 @ POR 103Picked HOU 70%Miss
- Nov 14POR 116 @ HOU 140Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Jan 18HOU 125 @ POR 103Picked HOU 80%Hit
- Nov 23POR 104 @ HOU 98Picked HOU 85%Miss
- Nov 22POR 88 @ HOU 116Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Apr 12HOU 116 @ POR 107Picked HOU 65%Hit
- Mar 25POR 92 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 79%Hit
- Mar 8HOU 123 @ POR 107Picked HOU 55%Hit