Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints37
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Tari EasonRebounds13
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints41
- Caleb LoveAssists4
- Donovan ClinganRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–103
- Q40.0(00:00) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)102–103
- Q40.8Rockets offensive team rebound102–103
- Q42.1Kevin Durant misses 19-foot two point shot102–103
- Q45.3Reed Sheppard enters the game for Josh Okogie102–103
- Q45.3Robert Williams III enters the game for Donovan Clingan102–103
- Q45.3Rockets Full timeout102–103
- Q45.3Shaedon Sharpe bad pass
turnover102–103
- Q45.3(00:05.3) [Rockets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Rockets] retain their timeout102–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:06Shaedon Sharpe makes 23-foot running jump shot (Toumani Camara assists)HOU 84 – 87 POR · POR 41% → 57% +15POR 41% → 57%+15 pts
- Q46:50Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)HOU 84 – 91 POR · POR 64% → 78% +14POR 64% → 78%+14 pts
- Q44:10Amen Thompson makes 5-foot fade away jump shotHOU 91 – 93 POR · HOU 29% → 42% +13HOU 29% → 42%+13 pts
- Q43:49Deni Avdija makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Toumani Camara assists)HOU 89 – 95 POR · POR 59% → 83% +24POR 59% → 83%+24 pts
- Q42:48Tari Eason makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 92 – 96 POR · HOU 8% → 23% +15HOU 8% → 23%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -7.5
- ML HOU -270 / POR +220
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -2
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.4%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -234
- POR +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 115.0 – 107.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +38 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Jrue Holiday −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +59 Elo | HOU 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 64.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.4 | Points scored | 116.915th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 119.624th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.4 | Margin | −2.722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.3 | Offense rating | 111.923rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.9 | Defense rating | 114.518th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 103.86th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15185th of 30 |
| 6th of 301602 | Elo rating | 146320th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+38 Elo- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–15 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 18–15 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–2 POR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Nov 14POR 116 @ HOU 140Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Jan 18HOU 125 @ POR 103Picked HOU 80%Hit
- Nov 23POR 104 @ HOU 98Picked HOU 85%Miss
- Nov 22POR 88 @ HOU 116Picked HOU 84%Hit
- Apr 12HOU 116 @ POR 107Picked HOU 65%Hit
- Mar 25POR 92 @ HOU 110Picked HOU 79%Hit
- Mar 8HOU 123 @ POR 107Picked HOU 55%Hit
- Jan 24POR 137 @ HOU 131Picked HOU 72%Miss