Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints24
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Dylan CardwellRebounds8
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints27
- Stephen CurryAssists10
- Gary Payton IIRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–137
- Q45.3Warriors offensive team rebound103–137
- Q48.2Pat Spencer misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot103–137
- Q413.2Buddy Hield offensive rebound103–137
- Q414.0Trayce Jackson-Davis misses dunk103–137
- Q414.0Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound103–137
- Q421.1Quinten Post misses 25-foot three point jumper103–137
- Q431.7Buddy Hield defensive rebound103–137
- Q434.5Malik Monk misses 31-foot three point jumper103–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:42Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)SAC 67 – 70 GS · GS 75% → 82% +7GS 75% → 82%+7 pts
- Q38:07DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)SAC 70 – 72 GS · SAC 14% → 20% +6SAC 14% → 20%+6 pts
- Q37:51Draymond Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)SAC 70 – 75 GS · GS 80% → 86% +6GS 80% → 86%+6 pts
- Q36:16Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)SAC 74 – 78 GS · GS 77% → 84% +7GS 77% → 84%+7 pts
- Q33:48De'Anthony Melton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)SAC 80 – 84 GS · GS 76% → 83% +8GS 76% → 83%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- GS -15.5
- ML SAC +550 / GS -800
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -10
- GS 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- GS: Elo 83.8%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -578
- SAC +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 108.0 – 123.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | +11 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +285 Elo | GS 83.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 84.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 84.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 115.020th of 30 |
| 27th of 30121.6 | Points allowed | 113.68th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.7 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 112.421st of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 111.19th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.4 | Pace | 101.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–16 | Road vs home | 12–57th of 30 |
| 1st of 301545 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 27th of 301391 | Elo rating | 15629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–24 | 17–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 12–22 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21 | 22–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 5–4 GS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 5GS 116 @ SAC 121Picked SAC 56%Hit
- Mar 13SAC 104 @ GS 130Picked GS 70%Hit
- Feb 21GS 132 @ SAC 108Picked GS 53%Hit
- Jan 22GS 117 @ SAC 123Picked SAC 71%Hit
- Jan 5SAC 129 @ GS 99Picked GS 59%Miss
- Jan 25SAC 134 @ GS 133Picked SAC 57%Hit
- Nov 28GS 123 @ SAC 124Picked SAC 64%Hit
- Nov 1SAC 101 @ GS 102Picked GS 54%Hit