Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints34
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Stephen CurryAssists7
- Al HorfordRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–120
- Q44.1De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound113–120
- Q48.5AJ Green misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot113–120
- Q414.7Stephen Curry out of bounds lost ball turnover113–120
- Q414.7(00:14.7) [Bucks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Bucks] retain their timeout113–120
- Q414.7Bucks Coach's Challenge113–120
- Q420.3Ryan Rollins makes driving layup113–120
- Q426.1Stephen Curry makes 21-foot step back jumpshot111–120
- Q444.3Draymond Green defensive rebound111–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:44Stephen Curry makes 29-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)MIL 19 – 20 GS · GS 64% → 70% +6GS 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q18.4Kevin Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Gary Trent Jr. assists)MIL 31 – 31 GS · MIL 27% → 33% +6MIL 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q211:02Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)MIL 33 – 34 GS · GS 62% → 69% +7GS 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q210:31Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)MIL 33 – 37 GS · GS 69% → 75% +6GS 69% → 75%+6 pts
- Q310:41Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 26-foot three pointer (Myles Turner assists)MIL 61 – 64 GS · MIL 21% → 28% +7MIL 21% → 28%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML MIL +210 / GS -258
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- GS: Elo 62.5%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -223
- MIL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.0 – 117.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +18 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +89 Elo | GS 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 66.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 114.820th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 113.68th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +1.215th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 112.222nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 111.09th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.3 | Pace | 101.618th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 11–58th of 30 |
| 28th of 301480 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 17th of 301480 | Elo rating | 15569th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–19 | 16–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–21 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–3 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.