Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Kevin Porter Jr.Points22
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists6
- Bobby PortisRebounds12
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints26
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- LeBron JamesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–101
- Q40.1Lakers offensive team rebound105–101
- Q40.4Marcus Smart misses 23-foot three point jumper105–101
- Q40.6Kyle Kuzma enters the game for AJ Green105–101
- Q40.6Dalton Knecht enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt105–101
- Q40.6Marcus Smart enters the game for Gabe Vincent105–101
- Q40.6Lakers Full timeout105–101
- Q40.6Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2105–101
- Q40.6Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2104–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:00Kevin Porter Jr. makes two point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 98 – 98 LAL · MIL 29% → 48% +19MIL 29% → 48%+19 pts
- Q41:36Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 101 – 98 LAL · MIL 48% → 79% +31MIL 48% → 79%+31 pts
- Q41:22Jake LaRavia makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Luka Doncic assists)MIL 101 – 101 LAL · LAL 19% → 51% +33LAL 19% → 51%+33 pts
- Q416.2Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 3MIL 102 – 101 LAL · MIL 49% → 75% +26MIL 49% → 75%+26 pts
- Q416.2Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 3MIL 103 – 101 LAL · MIL 75% → 92% +16MIL 75% → 92%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -3.5
- ML MIL +130 / LAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- LAL: Elo 53.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -140
- MIL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 112.5 – 116.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | −19 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +25 Elo | LAL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 116.316th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 116.616th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.3 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.5 | Offense rating | 115.38th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 115.522nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.2 | Pace | 100.921st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–12 | Road vs home | 10–612th of 30 |
| 29th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 21st of 301474 | Elo rating | 152413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–20 | 20–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–10 | 12–7 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–21 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–3 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.