Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints38
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Spurs- Keldon JohnsonPoints27
- Harrison BarnesAssists6
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–107
- Q40.0Lakers offensive team rebound91–107
- Q40.0Drew Timme misses 26-foot three point jumper91–107
- Q47.6shot clock turnover91–107
- Q431.2David Jones Garcia defensive rebound91–107
- Q434.1Dalton Knecht misses 25-foot three point jumper91–107
- Q451.1Drew Timme enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt91–107
- Q451.1Bronny James enters the game for Luka Doncic91–107
- Q451.1Chris Manon enters the game for Marcus Smart91–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:22Jake LaRavia makes 22-foot running jump shot (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 29 – 30 SA · LAL 23% → 29% +6LAL 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q27:44Jake LaRavia makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 32 – 30 SA · LAL 29% → 36% +7LAL 29% → 36%+7 pts
- Q251.9Keldon Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)LAL 41 – 48 SA · SA 76% → 83% +6SA 76% → 83%+6 pts
- Q39:25Luka Doncic makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotLAL 50 – 54 SA · LAL 17% → 24% +7LAL 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q49:51Nick Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three pointerLAL 76 – 83 SA · LAL 8% → 14% +6LAL 8% → 14%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SA -8.5
- ML LAL +250 / SA -310
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -6.5
- SA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- SA: Elo 73.8%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- SA -265
- LAL +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 112.5 – 121.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SA and LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −73 | +60 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +180 Elo | SA 73.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 70.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 119.29th of 30 |
| 18th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 114.210th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +4.97th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 116.26th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 111.49th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.215th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–5 | Road vs home | 12–55th of 30 |
| 19th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149517th of 30 |
| 12th of 301531 | Elo rating | 154111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–14 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–7 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–13 | 17–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–3 SA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Dec 10SA 132 @ LAL 119Picked LAL 71%Miss
- Nov 5SA 116 @ LAL 118Picked SA 53%Miss
- Mar 17SA 109 @ LAL 125Picked LAL 76%Hit
- Jan 13SA 126 @ LAL 102Picked LAL 61%Miss
- Nov 27LAL 119 @ SA 101Picked LAL 54%Hit
- Nov 15LAL 120 @ SA 115Picked LAL 57%Hit
- Feb 23SA 118 @ LAL 123Picked LAL 77%Hit
- Dec 15LAL 115 @ SA 129Picked LAL 65%Miss