Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints26
- Jalen JohnsonAssists6
- Dyson DanielsRebounds8
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints31
- Luka DoncicAssists12
- Deandre AytonRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–141
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–141
- Q45.7Keaton Wallace makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Vit Krejci assists)116–141
- Q412.9Vit Krejci offensive rebound114–141
- Q414.0Keaton Wallace misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot114–141
- Q421.9Drew Timme makes driving layup (Nick Smith Jr. assists)114–141
- Q437.8Corey Kispert makes running layup (Vit Krejci assists)114–139
- Q441.9Nick Smith Jr. lost ball turnover (Vit Krejci steals)112–139
- Q451.3Vit Krejci makes driving layup (Keaton Wallace assists)112–139
- Q41:02Nick Smith Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kobe Bufkin assists)110–139
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:34Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 24 – 22 LAL · LAL 42% → 48% +7LAL 42% → 48%+7 pts
- Q13:16Gabe Vincent makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)ATL 24 – 25 LAL · LAL 48% → 55% +7LAL 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q210:46CJ McCollum makes 30-foot three pointerATL 35 – 38 LAL · ATL 33% → 40% +7ATL 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q28:48Corey Kispert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 42 – 42 LAL · ATL 40% → 47% +7ATL 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q27:19Jake LaRavia makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)ATL 44 – 51 LAL · LAL 63% → 70% +7LAL 63% → 70%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML ATL +105 / LAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -0.5
- LAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 47.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAL -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.0 – 117.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −6 | −24 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +19 Elo | ATL 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 115.818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 116.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.618th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 115.27th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 115.824th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.8 | Pace | 100.524th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 10–714th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149716th of 30 |
| 15th of 301496 | Elo rating | 149914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–20 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 12–9 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–20 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–2 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.