Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerPoints24
- Dyson DanielsAssists9
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds12
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists6
- Draymond GreenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–111
- Q43.1shot clock turnover124–111
- Q427.1Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 3-foot two point shot (Will Richard assists)124–111
- Q450.4Keaton Wallace makes 12-foot step back jumpshot124–109
- Q41:00Vit Krejci offensive rebound122–109
- Q41:05Luke Kennard misses 26-foot three point jumper122–109
- Q41:18Gui Santos makes 26-foot three point jumper (Will Richard assists)122–109
- Q41:35Vit Krejci out of bounds bad pass turnover122–106
- Q41:46Corey Kispert defensive rebound122–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q226.9Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 25-foot running jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 57 – 51 GS · ATL 43% → 52% +9ATL 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q37:19Stephen Curry makes 25-foot running jump shot (De'Anthony Melton assists)ATL 70 – 68 GS · GS 47% → 57% +10GS 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q34:31Luke Kennard makes 22-foot running jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)ATL 78 – 71 GS · ATL 52% → 62% +10ATL 52% → 62%+10 pts
- Q32:43Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)ATL 81 – 73 GS · ATL 57% → 68% +11ATL 57% → 68%+11 pts
- Q32:24Luke Kennard makes 22-foot running jump shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ATL 84 – 73 GS · ATL 68% → 77% +9ATL 68% → 77%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML ATL +225 / GS -278
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6
- GS 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- GS: Elo 71.7%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- GS -239
- ATL +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.0 – 122.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +17 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +161 Elo | GS 71.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 72.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 115.519th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 113.48th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +2.211th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.18th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.9 | Pace | 101.419th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 13–56th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 17th of 301476 | Elo rating | 15699th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–20 | 18–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 13–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 23–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.